Cheesecake Factory Stock Has Doubled in 2025. Obama Just Made It a Punchline

Cheesecake Factory stock has more than doubled this year — one of the hottest stocks in the U.S. — even as former President Barack Obama just turned the brand into a national punchline. The chain reports third-quarter results after the closing bell on Tuesday.

At a campaign rally in Cleveland, Obama mocked President Donald Trump's White House renovations with a comparison the internet couldn't resist.

"There's gold everywhere, what's up with the gold? He's got the White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened up a Cheesecake Factory," Obama said.

Yes, the chain is famous for ostentatious interiors. It's also been quietly outperforming most of the market.

What do analysts expect from Tuesday's earnings?

Deutsche Bank analysts model third-quarter same-store sales growth of 12.8%, which they say reflects "benefits from menu innovation, social media/marketing engagement and its rewards program." Wall Street consensus sits lower, at 8.7% sales growth — but major investors have told the company's bankers they expect something closer to 13% to 14%.

That gap matters. If the chain clears 12.8%, it beats consensus by more than four percentage points.

How did a 217-location chain get here?

The company operates 217 namesake Cheesecake Factory locations and has spent two years retooling the menu for value without cheapening the brand.

Last year it introduced Bites and Bowls, a more value-oriented set of offerings. "These offerings not only support repeat traffic but often succeed in driving a higher average ticket as people combine meals from multiple plates or simply add-on to existing entrees," JPMorgan analysts said.

In April, the chain launched its first-ever mobile app — late by tech standards, but a meaningful lever for a rewards program Deutsche Bank credits with driving traffic.

Delivery is the other engine. One of the first major restaurant chains to embrace DoorDash, Cheesecake Factory now gets about a fifth of its sales from off-premises orders.

The company isn't shy about its cultural cachet, either. In an earnings presentation, it highlighted its "cult status" with a slide showing multiple People magazine articles about celebrities who enjoy its food.

Takeaway: menu innovation, an app and delivery scale are converting a meme-worthy brand into real comp growth.

Is there a hidden asset in the stock?

There may be one. The company also runs Flower Child, a health-focused, fast-casual concept that JPMorgan analysts said could be spun off within two years.

A spinoff would let investors value a growth-format brand separately from the flagship casual-dining business — a structural move worth watching even if the stock's near-term story is Tuesday's print.

Why are analysts still cautious?

Here's the tension. Despite the doubling, 71% of analysts rate the stock a hold, according to FactSet. The reason is simple arithmetic: the share price is basically at the median price target of $108.

In other words, the market has already paid for the turnaround. Tuesday's report has to clear a high bar — consensus 8.7%, big investors hoping for 13% to 14% — for the run to continue.

One-line closer: Obama's joke made headlines, but the 13%-plus comp investors expect is the number that decides whether this stock keeps climbing.