Nifty 50 Faces Wave 5 Peak by April 2027, Crash Risk by August

India's Nifty 50 index, trading near 25,144.30, is approaching the final leg of a five-year bull cycle with a projected Wave 5 peak between 27,383.65 and 28,809.55 between 1 March and 19 April 2027, according to an Elliott Wave analysis published on TradingView by chartist tradingwick, dated 14 November 2026.

The analysis carries a harder warning further out: once Wave 5 completes, the market could enter a major corrective decline by August 2027.

What does the long-term wave count show?

The weekly chart traces a large-degree five-wave bullish impulse that began with the recovery from the 2020 COVID-era bottom. Wave 1 ran into 2021 and lifted the index to the 18,600–18,700 region. Wave 2 corrected down to roughly 15,000 during 2021–2022.

Wave 3, the strongest and most extended phase, ran from the 2022 low to roughly 26,000 by 2024. A prolonged correction followed through the 2024–2026 period, marked with A, B, C subdivisions and a D-related recovery, all inside a long-term rising parallel channel.

The recovery from the 2026 low, tradingwick argues, may be building the final Wave 5 advance — the last leg of the cycle that started in 2020.

Where does the analysis expect Wave 5 to end?

The chart identifies 27,383.65–28,809.55 as the primary Wave 5 termination zone, derived from Fibonacci-based projections:

• 27,383.65 — the first level where Wave 5 maturity may appear
• 28,809.55 — the maximum boundary of the preferred termination zone
• 30,271.35 — an extended upside reference if momentum proves stronger than expected

The expected completion window runs from 1 March to 19 April 2027.

Wave 5 should not be declared complete at any single price, the analysis cautions. Confirmation requires weekly closing levels, momentum behaviour and Fibonacci extension tracking.

What's the buying opportunity on dips?

The analysis marks a buying zone of 23,745.15–24,712.10 for an intermediate pullback. The range could let the index retest its recent breakout area before resuming the climb.

• 24,712.10 — first level to watch during a pullback
• 23,745.15 — lower boundary of the buying range
• A weekly close below 23,745.15 would weaken the bullish setup and force a recount

The preferred approach, per the analysis, is to observe price behaviour inside the zone rather than assume an automatic reversal at either level.

Why does the trendline breakout matter?

Nifty has cleared a short-term descending resistance trendline, a move the analysis reads as evidence that immediate selling pressure has weakened and buyers are attempting to regain control. The index has also held a rising trajectory within its long-term parallel channel for several years.

Follow-through matters more than the breakout itself. A failure to sustain it, followed by a decline below the buying zone, would raise the risk of a false breakout or a deeper correction.

What do momentum indicators say?

The Trendwick RSI sits at approximately 61.70, with a momentum reading of 68.95. The indicator panel labels the overall market state and signal as BULLISH.

The key risk signal to watch, per the analysis, is bearish RSI divergence near the 27,383.65–28,809.55 zone — new price highs without RSI confirmation would suggest the final wave is exhausting.

What do the time cycles show?

Marked weekly-bar durations on the chart include:

• 82 bars, roughly 574 days
• 34 bars, roughly 238 days
• 28 bars, roughly 196 days
• 119 bars, roughly 833 days
• 39-bar segments, roughly 273 days each

The 196-day and 273-day intervals stand out as the relevant time-cycle references. The analysis treats the March–April 2027 window as a review period, not an exact turning point.

What happens after Wave 5?

The roadmap splits into three phases. First, the current bullish development with 23,745.15–24,712.10 as the key support and accumulation zone. Second, the final advance toward 27,383.65–28,809.55, with 30,271.35 as the extended reference, inside the March–April 2027 window. Third, a substantial corrective phase, with August 2027 flagged as the potential window for a larger-degree Wave 2 decline.

That August 2027 date is a risk window, not a guaranteed crash date, the analysis stresses. The magnitude, duration and starting point of any correction can't be established in advance, and the market must first prove that Wave 5 has actually completed — through weekly trend structure, momentum divergence and price behaviour near the termination zone.