Nigeria's NCC Weighs 15-Year Spectrum Licences to Drive Broadband

By Daniel Okafor

Nigeria's telecom regulator wants to extend spectrum licence tenures from 10 years to 15. The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) outlined the plan on Thursday, November 12, at a briefing in Abuja on a proposed Incentive-Based Spectrum Investment Framework (IBSIF).

"One of the things we want to do is to move the licence from 10 years to 15 years," commission officials said. The stated aim is to give operators greater assurance that they can recover their investments.

The NCC has not announced final eligibility rules, a fixed financial incentive or an implementation date. A consultation paper will gather feedback from industry and the public before the framework is refined and gradually introduced.

Why does licence length matter for investment?

The mechanism is straightforward. An operator weighing extra network spending needs confidence it can keep using the spectrum long enough to earn a return.

"If you now have a longer-term licence, you have certainty," the commission said.

The 15-year tenure would not be a blanket shift to indefinite licences. The NCC's existing spectrum instruments already accommodate durations of up to 15 years, though 10 years has been customary. Foreign examples of longer or indefinite arrangements were presented as comparisons, not decisions Nigeria has adopted.

The written briefing describes eligible investment as "additional, measurable, and enforceable," with benefits assessed against commitments on deployment, coverage, capacity and service quality. That distinction will determine whether the proposal changes investment behaviour or simply improves terms for plans operators already have.

Is this just a spectrum price cut?

No, according to the NCC. During the question-and-answer session, officials distanced the framework from an across-the-board fee reduction.

"It's not really per se that we are reducing the price of spectrum," the commission said. "Our focus instead is ensuring that value delivers on network investments and broadband expansion."

Under the described approach, the commission would establish the spectrum's value and quantify the additional investments required of an operator. Independently verified delivery would inform recognition of investment value. Officials disclosed no standard percentage or monetary threshold.

A simple fee cut lowers costs without dictating where savings go. The framework instead ties benefits to specified public outcomes. But valuing both sides of the exchange will be difficult, because the regulator must judge whether an operator would have invested anyway, and whether the public benefit justifies the incentive.

What is driving the demand?

Monthly data consumption rose from roughly 517,670 terabytes in January 2023 to 1.73 million terabytes in September 2026. That is more than a threefold increase in just over three years.

The commission expects demand to keep climbing as cloud services, artificial intelligence and other digital applications expand. Nigeria's reliance on mobile networks makes that growth consequential: households and businesses use mobile broadband through phones, routers and hotspots, pressuring networks even where coverage exists.

Coverage figures show the gap. 4G population coverage reached a little over 80%, while 5G coverage stood at approximately 13% in April 2026. These are coverage measures, not active usage. The NCC questioned whether a 5G indicator on a phone translates into a satisfactory 5G experience, noting that improvements in congested areas could count alongside expansion into underserved locations.

How would the regulator verify new investment?

The central safeguard separates new commitments from spending operators already owe under their licences.

"This is not your business as usual," the NCC said, explaining that qualifying investment must be additional to existing rollout requirements.

Before awarding incentives, the regulator will need a credible baseline of existing obligations, deployment plans and network performance. Officials outlined:

• Quarterly reporting
• Independent technical and financial audits
• NCC compliance checks
• Crowdsourced network performance measurements
• Targeted field tests where data suggests discrepancies

"You're going to have to do a lot of independent checks," the commission said.

What remains unclear is how sanctions would work. Officials referred to safeguards and penalties, but the briefing set no mechanism for recovering an incentive, revising an extension or handling partial delivery.

What does it mean for competition?

The framework is intended to accommodate smaller and regional operators, not only national networks. Officials discussed geographically limited commitments that could let smaller players participate without nationwide obligations.

Spectrum trading raises another design question. Operators accepting incentives for specific commitments would not ordinarily be allowed to trade the affected spectrum while those commitments are being fulfilled. A proposed trade during that period would require the arrangement to be reconsidered.

What are the limits?

The NCC acknowledges spectrum incentives alone will not solve Nigeria's connectivity constraints. It placed IBSIF alongside measures on fibre deployment, infrastructure sharing, state-level approvals and infrastructure protection.

Asked why some states that waived right-of-way charges had not attracted substantial investment, an official said operators need predictable conditions, not a waiver offset by other charges. Officials also conceded some areas remain commercially unviable even with incentives, leaving a role for universal-service intervention.

The policy should be assessed as one investment mechanism, not a promise of universal coverage.