Nike Is the S&P 500's 13th-Worst Stock — and BofA Says the Slide Isn't Over

Nike's stock has lost roughly 44% of its value so far this year, making it the 13th-worst performer in the S&P 500 Index — and Bank of America doesn't think the decline is finished.

On Friday, BofA analysts led by Lorraine Hutchinson downgraded Nike (NKE) to underperform from neutral. The call rests on several converging pressures the analysts see in the months ahead: continued consumer caution, ongoing struggles in Nike's classic casual sneakers business, new products that aren't resonating with shoppers, and intensifying competition in China.

The downgrade also carries a blunt message about timing. The BofA team now expects Nike's sales to keep falling through May, according to the analysts' projections. That forecast dashes the earlier hopes among investors for a "spring inflection" — the point at which the sneaker giant's revenue would finally turn upward after a prolonged downturn.

The scale of the stock's decline stands out even within a mixed year for the broader market. A 44% year-to-date drop places Nike among the bottom tier of the 500 companies in the S&P 500, a benchmark that includes some of the market's most established names. Shares slipped a further 0.67% in recent trading following the report.

For Nike, the BofA downgrade lands at an awkward moment. The company reports quarterly results next week, and the analyst action frames the questions investors will bring to that release. Management will face scrutiny over whether the classic casual sneakers business — a pillar of the company's lineup — is stabilizing or still eroding. The answers will matter for the timeline BofA has now put on the table: falling sales through May, with no inflection in sight this spring.

Each element of the downgrade points to a different fault line. Consumer caution speaks to the demand side — shoppers holding back on spending. The struggles in classic casual sneakers speak to the product side, where Nike's established franchises are no longer pulling their historical weight. The observation that new products "aren't resonating" addresses the innovation pipeline, suggesting fresh launches have yet to fill the gap left by aging lines. And tougher competition in China adds a geographic dimension, hitting one of the world's largest sportswear markets precisely when Nike needs growth wherever it can find it.

The downgrade from neutral to underperform is more than a routine ratings shuffle. Neutral implies a stock roughly keeping pace with its peers; underperform signals the analyst team expects it to trail them. BofA is telling clients that even after a 44% decline, the risk-reward on Nike shares still doesn't favor buying.

That judgment puts the burden of proof squarely on next week's earnings report. If Nike's results or guidance contradict the BofA view — showing demand holding up, new products gaining traction, or China stabilizing — the "spring inflection" thesis could revive. If they confirm it, investors will be pricing in a turnaround that, by BofA's math, won't arrive before May at the earliest.

Either way, the report arrives with the stakes unusually clear: a stock already among the S&P 500's worst performers, a Wall Street bank calling for more downside, and a management team with one quarterly print to change the narrative.