Nucor Guides Q3 EPS to $5.55–$5.65, Freedom Broker Cuts Rating to Hold

Freedom Broker downgraded Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE) from Buy to Hold on September 17 and cut its price target from $305 to $285, a day after the steelmaker issued third-quarter earnings guidance of $5.55 to $5.65 per diluted share.

The guidance midpoint of $5.60 per share represents a 113% increase from the $2.63 per share Nucor reported in the third quarter of 2025. Yet the outlook landed well below Freedom Broker's previous estimate of $7.54 per share. It also missed Street expectations, which ranged from $5.99 to $6.20 per share.

Freedom Broker analyst Vitaly Kononov argued the market may have overreacted to the weaker guidance. He expects the positive momentum in Nucor's stock from earlier in the year to continue. Still, the lower-than-expected forecast has added near-term pressure to the shares.

Steel Shipments Keep Setting Records

The operational picture remains strong. In the second quarter of 2026, Nucor shipped 7.1 million tons from its steel mills, its second consecutive quarterly record. Steel mill shipments rose 1% from the previous quarter. The company's tube business also posted a new quarterly shipment record.

Nucor credited investment across key sectors of the US economy, together with supportive federal trade policies, for driving the record shipments. The company continues to invest in expanding its capabilities and strengthening its position across a broad portfolio of steel and fabricated steel products in North America.

Capital returns have continued alongside the operational growth. Nucor said it had returned approximately $1.36 billion to stockholders through share repurchases and dividend payments year-to-date as of September 17.

What the Numbers Say

Hedge fund interest in the stock increased during the second quarter. According to Insider Monkey's database, 62 hedge funds held Nucor at the end of the second quarter, up from 59 in the first quarter.

Short interest remained relatively low at 2.40% of the company's float as of August 31, indicating limited bearish positioning.

Nucor also looks relatively inexpensive on a forward basis. The stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11.51 — a modest earnings multiple despite the strong year-to-date rally.

Analyst sentiment remains largely positive despite Freedom Broker's downgrade. Of the 19 analysts covering Nucor, 74% rate the stock a Buy. The median 12-month price target of $295 implies nearly 19% upside from the stock's price as of September 18.

The tension now sits between record shipments and a guidance number that fell short of the Street: if Kononov is right that investors overreacted, the valuation and analyst support suggest room for the shares to recover as third-quarter results come into view.