NVIDIA Trades at $168.89 as Analyst Maps Short Setup Ahead of Earnings

NVIDIA stock has broken down to $168.89, sliding well below the Vegas Tunnel technical channel whose boundaries sit near $207.17 and $209.17 — and one analyst says the drop has gone too far, too fast to chase.

In a TradingView analysis published under the handle SakuraSeiko, the author lays out a bearish trading plan on NVDA that deliberately waits for a bounce rather than shorting into weakness. The entry zone: $178–184, with a stop loss at $190 and two profit targets at $168–165 and $162–158.

What does the setup actually change for traders?

The core point is discipline. The analyst's preferred scenario is a rebound into the $178–184 area, followed by a clear rejection on the four-hour chart before committing capital. "I'm not interested in chasing a weak price just because the broader trend is bearish," SakuraSeiko wrote.

The rules of the trade are explicit:

• Entry: $178–184
• Stop loss: $190
• Take profit 1: $168–165
• Take profit 2: $162–158
• Invalidation: a sustained move above $190 kills the short thesis

If NVDA reclaims $184 and builds acceptance above it, the analyst will reconsider the short rather than force the position. The first downside target is $168–165; if that shelf breaks, $162–158 becomes the next zone to watch.

The technical damage in plain terms

The breakdown below the Vegas Tunnel matters because that channel had been acting as dynamic support. Now, SakuraSeiko argues, it flips into a major resistance zone on any recovery attempt. Trading volume rose during the latest selloff, which the analyst reads as strong selling participation reinforcing bearish momentum. The prior bullish trend structure, in this reading, has weakened considerably.

Fundamentals tell a different story

The chart breakdown sits against a business that's still compounding at breakneck speed. For FY2027 Q2, NVIDIA reported:

• Revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year
• Data Center revenue of $89.0 billion, up 117% year over year
• Next-quarter revenue guidance of approximately $108 billion

That means NVIDIA's data center arm alone — at $89 billion a quarter, roughly $356 billion on an annualized run-rate basis — continues to prove that AI infrastructure demand remains the company's primary growth engine.

The risks stacking up

SakuraSeiko flags two macro and governance overhangs. First, NVIDIA faces an independent investigation following reports involving CEO Jensen Huang. The board has said it has no reason to believe NVIDIA's confidential information or national security was compromised, but the probe adds uncertainty. Second, hotter-than-expected US inflation and rising Treasury yields are pressuring high-valuation technology stocks broadly.

The next major catalyst lands on November 17, when NVIDIA reports earnings. The analyst will be watching revenue growth, AI demand and forward guidance closely — and warns that with earnings approaching, volatility could increase in either direction.

A side watch: Anthropic

While waiting on NVIDIA's next setup, SakuraSeiko is also monitoring Anthropic's potential IPO on Bitget IPO Prime. With the public round open, a hypothetical $70 IPO price and $80 opening price could produce an estimated 8.57% ROI on a 100 USDT subscription after the 5% fee.

The bottom line

The analyst's overall stance is short-term bearish on the stock, but not on the business: strong fundamentals and weak price action can coexist, and the AI growth story isn't necessarily damaged. The open question for the market into November 17 is whether NVDA stabilizes around $168–170 or sellers push it toward $160.