NVIDIA’s $170 Put Wall Breaks Before November 17 Earnings

By Olivia Hart

Shares of NASDAQ-listed NVIDIA Corporation traded near $168 after TanukiTrade flagged a break below the $170 put wall on the December 18 cumulative options profile. The company’s earnings were due the following week, after the close on November 17.

TanukiTrade wrote that “the break alone is not the story — acceptance below 170 is.” An earlier push lower had been bought back, making persistence below $170 the more meaningful signal. The distinction leaves the technical setup conditional rather than confirmed.

What does the break change?

TanukiTrade said price was well below HVL at $192 and pTrans at $175, keeping NVDA in a negative GEX regime. With P1 broken, the chart author placed the stock in the negative gamma extension zone and identified “downside gamma squeeze” risk toward P2 if acceptance below $170 held.

The note warned that moves in this regime tend to be faster and more amplified in both directions. The two-way risk limits the certainty of any bearish reading.

Takeaway: A sustained break below $170 carries more weight than the initial break.

How expensive are options?

TanukiTrade reported a CALL$ reading of 8.16% at 38 days to expiration. The measure means call options at an equivalent distance from spot were priced 8.16% above corresponding puts, a call-pricing skew the analyst described as modest. IVRank stood at 88.84, near 89, which TanukiTrade said made options expensive entering earnings.

The chart also listed IVx at 66.2 and the five-day change labeled IVx 5dCh at +0.24%. TanukiTrade said NVDA remained in a negative extension into earnings and that options were priced for a large move.

Takeaway: Options prices allow for a large earnings move, but they do not settle its direction.

Where does downside pressure point?

TanukiTrade mapped three levels below spot:

• $170 — P1: The put wall is broken and becomes the first reclaim level.
• $165 — P3 + PV + nPV: P3 is the third put wall, while PV and nPV mark the strongest put volume for the day. The confluence makes $165 the first active reaction zone below spot.
• $160 — P2: This is the next put wall below the market.

Under TanukiTrade’s framework, momentum toward $165–$160 would extend the downside case, while another buyback would repeat the earlier reversal. The distinction between a brief breach and sustained acceptance therefore determines which path develops.

Takeaway: $165 is the first downside test, with $160 as the next put wall.

What would reverse the setup?

TanukiTrade’s upside map requires a sequence of levels:

• $170: Reclaiming it puts price back inside the put cluster.
• $175 — pTrans + CV: The put cluster starts here, and CV carries the highest call volume for the day. Trading above $175 returns price to the transition zone.
• $195 — HVL: The chart labels this the regime pivot.
• $200 — COI + AbOI + D−: This is the heaviest open-interest strike above the market.

The note is inconsistent on HVL: its regime section lists HVL at $192, while its upside structure labels $195 as HVL. TanukiTrade does not resolve that discrepancy, so the $195 label should be treated as the chart’s stated pivot rather than an independently verified threshold.

Takeaway: A recovery must first reclaim $170, then clear $175, before the chart’s larger upside markers come into play.

What happens after earnings?

TanukiTrade left the central test open: momentum could carry price below $170 toward $165–$160, or buyers could reject the break and restore it, as they did previously. The analyst described NVDA as trading in negative extension into earnings, with options priced for a large move.

After the November 17 close, the first test under TanukiTrade’s map is whether NVDA can reclaim $170. A reclaim would put $175 back in focus; sustained trade below $170 would keep $165 and $160 as the immediate downside markers.

The chart offers no earnings estimates, revenue assumptions, valuation framework, or probabilities for either direction. It also leaves GEX, HVL, pTrans and most profile markers undefined, limiting the analysis to a tactical map rather than a standalone forecast.

Takeaway: For traders using TanukiTrade’s map, the post-earnings response at $170, $165 and $160 matters more than the initial intraday breach.