Oil Hits $104.67 a Barrel, Up 52% From a Year Ago

Brent crude traded at $104.67 per barrel as of 10 a.m. Eastern Time on September 24, 2026 — up $2.64 from the previous morning and roughly $36 higher than a year earlier.

The gain adds up to a 2.58% rise from yesterday's price of $102.03, according to the Brent benchmark. The move is part of a steeper climb: oil stood at $94.42 one month ago, a 10.85% jump to today's level. Measured over a full year, the increase is dramatic. A barrel cost $68.94 in late September 2025, meaning prices have risen 51.82% year over year.

What drives the number

Oil prices remain inherently unpredictable. While many variables come into play, the basic push and pull of supply and demand is what ultimately matters. In times of heightened concern about recession, war, or other major disruptions, oil can swing suddenly.

Prices depend heavily on news about potential future supply and demand — geopolitics, OPEC+ decisions, and related signals. In the U.S., prices also move based on how friendly an administration is to drilling. In 2025, the Trump administration moved to reopen more than 1.5 million acres in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil and gas leasing, reversing the Biden administration's policy of limiting oil drilling in the Arctic.

The price updates constantly while futures markets are open. A futures market is effectively an auction where participants agree to buy or sell oil in the future; as long as trading continues, the quoted price keeps changing.

From barrel to pump

Each gallon at the pump bundles several costs: crude oil, refining, wholesale distribution, government taxes, and station markups. Crude usually accounts for more than half of the price per gallon, so it moves the needle the most.

The transmission is asymmetric. Sharp increases in oil almost always show up quickly at the pump. Declines translate into slower, delayed drops in gas prices — the so-called "rockets and feathers" effect.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve

When emergencies hit — sanctions, severe storm damage, or war — the U.S. can draw on its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a stockpile of crude intended to secure energy supplies and blunt brutal price spikes when supply gets disrupted.

It is not a solution for the long haul. It functions as an immediate safety net to support consumers and keep crucial sectors running: key industries, emergency services, public transportation and the like.

The gas connection

Oil and natural gas are two of the main fuels powering the world economy, and a big move in one can affect the other. If oil prices rise, some industries may substitute natural gas wherever possible in their operations, which in turn increases demand for natural gas.

A history of shocks

The oil market tracks two benchmarks: Brent crude, the main global reference, and West Texas Intermediate, the main North American gauge. Brent offers the clearer view of global performance because it prices much of the world's traded crude, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration now uses Brent as its primary reference in its Annual Energy Outlook.

The long-term record is anything but stable. The early 1970s brought the first major oil shock, when Middle East producers slashed exports and embargoed the U.S. and others during the Yom Kippur War. Prices fell in the mid-1980s on lower demand and the entry of more non-OPEC producers. They jumped in 2008 on rising global demand, then plunged alongside the financial crisis. In 2020, COVID lockdowns collapsed demand like never before, sending prices below $20 per barrel.

U.S. shale production adds another variable. The more shale the U.S. taps, the greater the supply — and the more easily prices can avoid spiking.

At $104.67, oil now sits 52% above its year-ago level, and the pass-through works both ways for the broader economy. Expensive oil tends to make everyday items cost more, from heating and gas utilities to groceries, as shipping costs climb from warehouses and farms to store shelves. With a 51.82% annual gain already booked, the question for consumers and businesses alike is whether supply can catch up before the pump takes a larger share of household budgets.