Oil’s 17.5% Slide Nears $91.355-$92.191 Resistance

By Olivia Hart

US crude oil fell roughly 17.5% from a late-October peak near $105 to a ten-week low of $86 on 10 November, CFI said. The drop, equal to nearly one-fifth of the peak price, followed easing geopolitical tensions and a fading geopolitical risk premium.

WTI recovered part of the loss on 12 November, closing at $88.74 with a 2.6% gain, CFI said. CFI linked the rebound to renewed geopolitical tensions, which disrupted shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The $88.74 close remained below the late-October peak but above the ten-week low, illustrating the split between physical pressure and geopolitical risk.

The 17.5% slide and 2.6% rebound are not contradictory signals within CFI's framework. The first tracked easing tensions and a fading premium; the second tracked their reversal. Together, they frame a market where geopolitical events can quickly offset supply and inventory pressure.

Can supply and inventories outweigh geopolitical risk?

Supply pressure compounded the decline, CFI said, after OPEC+ output jumped in October. Saudi Arabia led the increase, with production up 26%, or more than one-quarter. CFI did not specify the production baseline or comparison period, leaving that percentage without a reference point.

US crude inventories rose by 4.7 million barrels in the week ending 6 November, CFI said. That build added a second bearish input as the geopolitical premium faded. CFI nevertheless described fundamentals as split between supply and inventory pressure on one side and a geopolitical risk premium on the other.

CFI gives no probability or forecast horizon, and it does not specify the year or decompose the inventory build. In plain terms, the fundamental case points lower, but not without conditions.

Does the chart confirm a bearish shift?

After an uptrend extending from mid-October, price broke below a well-defined ascending trendline from a peak near $106, CFI said. On the four-hour chart, the break began a sequence of lower highs and lower lows.

CFI's recorded highs fell from 106 to 100 and then 93.259. Successive lows moved from 94.3 to 87.9 to 84.3. CFI called this “the classic pattern confirming a shift in market structure from bullish to bearish.”

Price was trading near 88.97 within a corrective rebound from the latest low, CFI said. The analysis does not fully reconcile its references: the narrative cites a $105 peak and $86 ten-week low, while the technical section uses $106 and $84.3.

It also quotes a 12 November close of $88.74 but a current price near $88.97 without dating the latter. CFI said the renewed geopolitical premium was clearly reflected in the technical picture.

Those unreconciled figures limit precision, although the direction of the technical signal remains clear. The chart leans bearish in structure, but its price references deserve caution.

What levels define the next move?

CFI's technical map assigns distinct roles to three price areas. The $91.355-$92.191 zone comes from a Fibonacci retracement and functions as a supply area.

• $91.355-$92.191: Rejection from this supply zone could resume the decline, provided negative momentum persists.
• $93.259: CFI calls this “the last recorded lower high.” A close above it on the four-hour chart would break the sequence of lower highs and bring the bullish scenario back into play.
• $86, then $84.3: Failure at the supply zone could open the way to $86 first, followed by the $84.3 low. A break below $84.3 would extend the bearish wave toward unspecified lower levels.

CFI offers no probability, position guidance, or explicit target below $84.3. Its bullish test is also time-frame specific: a brief intraday move above $93.259 would not satisfy the stated requirement for a four-hour close.

The next decision point is the $91.355-$92.191 supply zone. Rejection favors $86 and then $84.3, while a four-hour close above $93.259 would revive the bullish case.