Platinum, Aluminium, Copper: Why 2026 Prices Diverged From Supply

By the end of 2025, platinum had logged three consecutive years of deficits, copper mines were fighting major disruptions, and China's aluminium output was bumping against its 45-million-tonne capacity ceiling. Yet in 2026 the three metals took sharply different price paths. According to an analysis by TradingView contributor mintdotfinance, the divergence reflects shifting investor sentiment, interest-rate expectations and trade policy — and a widening gap between futures prices and physical availability.

What happened to platinum?

In November 2025, the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecast a 692 koz deficit for 2025 but expected the market to swing into a small 20 koz surplus in 2026. Platinum nonetheless surged to a record high in January 2026 before reversing, as hawkish Federal Reserve expectations and the Iran war lifted the dollar and bond yields.

Investment selling added pressure. ETFs recorded 234 koz of outflows in the second quarter. WPIC then revised its 2026 outlook three times: to a 297 koz deficit in May 2026, then to a 265 koz surplus in September 2026.

Takeaway: the forecast flip-flopped across a swing of more than 560 koz within a year, yet inventories still cover just 3.4 months of demand.

Why did aluminium's war premium fade?

Heading into 2026, ING expected a modest 200-kilotonne aluminium deficit, citing China's 45-million-tonne capacity cap and a prolonged outage at Century's Iceland smelter. ING also flagged a potential March 2026 shutdown of South32's Mozal smelter, which it said would widen its projected deficit from 200 kt to 600 kt.

The Iran war then disrupted Gulf smelters, pushing COMEX aluminium toward USD 3,800 per tonne by early June. Prices fell as the geopolitical risk premium unwound. Higher Chinese exports, growing Indonesian production and expectations of smelter restarts offset lost Gulf supply.

In July, ING cut its projected 2026 deficit from 1.8 million tonnes to 1.2 million tonnes. The market remained undersupplied — but the perceived risk of a prolonged shortage had dropped sharply.

Is copper in surplus or shortage?

In October 2025, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecast a 150-kilotonne refined copper deficit for 2026. By October 2026, it had revised that to a 104-kilotonne surplus, citing weaker demand and higher secondary supply.

Copper still rallied through September, as mine disruptions and expectations of U.S. import tariffs encouraged stockpiling in American warehouses, tightening supply elsewhere. Prices then retreated as the U.S. tariff premium narrowed and concerns over AI-related demand weighed on sentiment, per Kitco — copper posted its first monthly loss since June.

What do the 2027 forecasts say?

• Copper: Global mine production is expected to rise 3.4% to 24.08 million tonnes in 2027, according to Cochilco. The refined surplus is forecast to widen to 215,000 tonnes — about 0.8% of consumption.
• Aluminium: CRU forecasts a 1.4-million-tonne surplus in 2027. Middle Eastern production is projected to recover from 4.8 million to 6.4 million tonnes, while Indonesian output more than doubles to 3.2 million tonnes on new Chinese-backed projects.
• Platinum: WPIC forecasts a structural deficit of 368 koz in 2027. Mine supply falls 0.5% as lower South African output offsets growth elsewhere; industrial demand rises 4.6%, lifting total demand 1.7% to 7,801 koz against total supply of 7,433 koz, up just 0.8%.

How did the historical trades perform?

The analysis, which is sponsored content, includes two illustrative CME positions.

A long CME aluminium futures position entered at 2,906 and exited at 3,167.50 returned 25 × (3,167.50 − 2,906) = USD 6,537.50, a 9% gain on notional value.

The platinum short was a different story. WPIC's November 19, 2025 release projected a broadly balanced 2026 market — total supply up 4% year-on-year to 7,404 koz, demand down 6% to 7,385 koz, with a combined 540 koz reversal in non-bar and coin investment demand. Instead, platinum futures gained roughly 84% by January 26, fuelled by tight physical supply, investor interest, strength across precious metals and speculative buying.

The short, entered at 1,551.50 and exited at 2,605.70, lost 50 × (1,551.50 − 2,605.70) = −USD 52,710, roughly 68% of notional value.

What should investors watch next?

The analysis points to four catalysts: the December Federal Reserve meeting, Middle Eastern smelter restarts, the U.S. refined copper tariff decision and WPIC's next platinum update. Its core lesson cuts both ways — financial sentiment moved futures prices while inventories and regional flows set physical availability, and a forecast surplus did not prevent a record rally. Watching physical premiums, exchange inventories and regional supply flows, rather than headline prices alone, offers the clearer read.