Copper Down 7% From September Peak as Dollar Strength Bites

Copper has fallen roughly 7% from its $14,752 peak on September 21, and analyst Kearabilwe-Nonyana says the macro backdrop explains every point of that drop. Industrial metals absorbed a severe hit from the risk-off trade that followed the US election. A stronger dollar, fresh worries about tariffs on Chinese imports, and fading optimism around infrastructure spending together drained the premium built into copper over the summer.

The pressure hasn't let up. The dollar strength that weighs on dollar-denominated commodities persists, China's real estate sector remains the structural anchor on demand, and December Fed rate hike probability sits above 80% after the high October PCE reading. Copper, as the most economically sensitive of the base metals, felt the full force of that repricing.

Where the chart stands right now

The daily chart sits at a crucial point. At 13,750, price has broken cleanly through the 50 EMA at 14,056 and the 100 EMA at 13,798. The declining channel since September has been steady and orderly — lower highs, controlled selling, no panic spike lower. The RSI at 38.05 trades below its signal of 43.16, pushing into oversold territory without yet curling. The MACD histogram at −105.98 remains firmly negative.

One level matters most: the 200 EMA at 13,256, which has acted as a structural floor twice this year. Price now sits barely 500 points above it. Compression in the candlestick bodies over the past week suggests the selling impulse is starting to fade.

What does this change for traders?

The setup defines a concrete risk boundary. The analyst's recommendation, in full:

• Direction: Cautiously long the descending channel base above the 200 EMA
• Entry zone: 13,669–13,800
• Primary target: 14,056
• Secondary target: 14,323
• Stop loss: Daily close below 13,256

The risk note is blunt: dollar strength on a hawkish Fed or new tariff headlines could extend the channel toward the 200 EMA. Size cautiously and wait for MACD histogram contraction as confirmation.

Three scenarios from here

Bullish — dollar softens, China demand surprises. A weaker US currency plus better-than-expected Chinese industrial output lifts the commodity bid. RSI crosses back above its signal, the MACD histogram starts to shrink, the channel base confirms, price reclaims the 100 EMA at 13,798, and 14,056 becomes the first objective.

Neutral — base consolidates above the 200 EMA. While the market awaits Fed guidance and China macro data, price chops between 13,500 and 13,900. RSI stabilizes between 35 and 43, the falling channel stays intact but loses velocity, and the MACD histogram holds near −105. The entry zone remains in effect.

Bearish — dollar strength breaks the 200 EMA. A fresh tariff escalation or a hawkish Fed surprise produces a daily close below 13,256. The structural floor fails, RSI drops under 30, MACD lines keep spreading, and the declining channel accelerates — the stop is the only exit.

For practitioners, the practical question is simple: is this a controlled pullback or the front edge of a breakdown? The compression near the 200 EMA argues for patience, but the whole trade turns on whether the dollar rally and tariff headlines cool before the floor gets tested.