QQQ Rallied 3.63% Last Week — but New Lows Hit 295

The Invesco QQQ trust rose 3.63% to 679.89 in the week ending November 13, yet Nasdaq new lows expanded to 295 from 268 the week before. That is the contradiction at the center of the tape right now: price recovered, market internals did not.

The analysis comes from TradingView contributor TradeSentinelNotes, who tracks the Nasdaq 100's breadth and leadership measures week by week. The verdict is blunt: this is a bounce inside an unrepaired downtrend, not a confirmed leadership recovery.

Where does QQQ stand against its moving averages?

QQQ closed the week below all five of its major averages. The 20-day sits at 695.5, the 50-day at 717.9, the 100-day at 714.5, the 150-day at 709.5 and the 200-day at 682.2. The 200-day is the closest hurdle — and the most important one.

Participation did improve. Nasdaq 100 stocks trading above their 20-day average rose from 39.60% to 50.49%. Those above the 200-day climbed from 43.56% to 55.44%. But 50.49% remains well short of the 60% threshold the analysis treats as a repair signal.

Friday exposed the weakness. New highs fell to 22 from 32, against 295 new lows — roughly a 1-to-13 ratio. TradeSentinelNotes calls that poor, though not a 1-to-100 panic extreme. Only 38.5% of Friday's Nasdaq issues advanced, and up-volume was 42.6%.

What did the rest of the technology complex do?

The bounce was broad across tech proxies. Equal-weight Nasdaq (QQQE) gained 3.42%, the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) rose 3.36%, and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) surged 9.35%. In every case, price remains below the short and intermediate moving averages.

The volatility market, by contrast, released last week's stress. The VIX/VIX3M ratio moved back below 1.0, and a white-flag reversal printed on Monday. But Nasdaq's leadership measures did not confirm that release. As the analysis puts it: stress came out of volatility, not out of the leadership tape.

Which sectors are actually leading?

The divergence analysis identifies the split. Healthcare, staples and financials retain intact absolute and relative structures. QQQ, XLK, SOXX and software (IGV) have not repaired their short and intermediate averages versus SPY.

Friday quantified the rotation. QQQ fell 1.20% on higher volume, SOXX dropped 3.7% and XLK lost 2.0% — while staples rose 1.4%. In TradeSentinelNotes' words: "The bounce and the leadership tape are still telling different stories."

What would validate the bearish read?

Three conditions keep the bounce-in-a-downtrend case intact, per the analysis:

• QQQ stays below its 200-day at 682.2
• New lows fail to contract
• Friday-style weakness persists in Nasdaq advances and up-volume

A rebound that leaves participation only halfway repaired would not, on its own, overturn the thesis. The 50.49% reading above the 20-day still falls short of 60%.

What would invalidate it?

The repair sequence is specific. First, new lows must contract and Nasdaq 100 participation above the 20-day must move back above 60%. Then QQQ needs to reclaim its 200-day near 682, followed by its 20-day near 695.

The analysis expects that repair to arrive with the volatility term structure in contango, VIX moving toward 15–17, and VIX/VIX3M closer to 0.90. A further leg higher that leaves new lows expanding and QQQ below 682 would not qualify.

SOXX's 9.35% week gets the same treatment. It remains a bounce until price reclaims its 20-, 50- and 100-day averages.

The bottom line

Until new lows contract and QQQ reclaims its 200-day at 682.2, the rebound is a test of repair rather than confirmation of it. Watch the 22/295 highs-lows count and the 682 level first; the trend verdict follows those numbers, not the weekly gain.