Russell 2000 Jumps 3.1% as Semis Lead Monday's Broad Rebound

The Russell 2000 gained 3.1% on Monday, leading a broad market rebound that turned Friday's initial bounce into a wider recovery ahead of Tuesday's October CPI print. Small caps outperformed, SPY rose 2.37%, and RSP added 2.27%, according to SITCo's Monday Night Market Review published November 9.

Micro E-mini S&P 500 futures (MES) traded back above their major low-volume node and tested the descending boundary near 7,590–7,600. Sustained trade above that zone, followed by a successful retest, would bring 7,622 into focus. On the downside, 7,568.50 marks the first pivot. "A break below it followed by a failed reclaim would put 7,537 and 7,513 back on the map," the review noted.

Why is MNQ lagging the S&P?

MES is further along in its repair than Micro E-mini Nasdaq futures. MNQ rallied into its descending trendline near 28,100 but pulled back beneath it in evening trade, still near the lower end of its LVN range.

SITCo's read: if MES holds its reclaim and participation stays broad, the S&P can continue repairing even with MNQ lagging. A sustained MNQ reclaim would give the tech rebound stronger confirmation.

How strong was the breadth?

Breadth improved across timeframes. NYSE advancers outnumbered decliners by roughly 1,587, and net up-volume built through the session. About 69% of S&P 500 stocks closed above their 20- and 50-day averages, with 63% above their 200-day average.

RSP closed at 220.95, reclaiming both its rising trendline and the 217.01 horizontal level. RSP/SPY slipped 0.10% on the day — equal weight participated strongly while slightly trailing cap weight. A successful trendline retest would show participation can hold beyond Monday's initial surge.

What happened in semis — and why did Nvidia fall?

Semiconductors led the bounce while Nvidia diverged. SOX rallied 6.85% into its prior downside gap, and SMH gained 5.05%. AMD, AVGO, and MU all advanced — but NVDA fell 4.27%.

Several chip names carried the rebound, though SOX still sits below its falling moving-average cluster. The next test: whether SOX holds the ground it recovered inside the gap and SMH defends its 465.86 reclaim.

Volatility, credit and rates: what do they say?

VIX fell to roughly 19.9, VIX1D finished near 17.3, and bond volatility eased. November VX still traded about 0.45 points above December in the evening, leaving some near-term premium ahead of CPI.

High yield outperformed investment grade, and regional banks edged ahead of broader financials. Both relative moves helped confirm the rebound, though SITCo cautions the broader downtrends in those ratios remain visible.

Lower oil prices helped ease inflation pressure on the session. Treasury yields still rose modestly at the front end: the 2-year at 4.56% and the 10-year at 4.88% on Monday's Treasury marks.

What are Tuesday's decision points?

• Bull continuation — MES accepts above 7,590–7,600 and holds a retest; MNQ regains its descending trendline; semis hold their repair; cash breadth stays positive.
• Failed rebound — MES loses 7,568.50 and fails to reclaim it while MNQ rejects its trendline; a loss of the RSP trendline and deteriorating ADD/VOLD would strengthen that read.
• Chop / no trade — MES keeps rotating between the pivot and resistance while MNQ repeatedly fails at its line; wait for a break that holds on a retest.

The macro calendar sets the tempo: October CPI lands at 6:30 a.m. MT, followed by the 10-year Treasury auction at 11:00 a.m. MT. SITCo's regime call — broad risk-on rebound Monday, with higher-timeframe structure still mixed — means traders should revalidate the futures levels after CPI and let the cash session show whether buyers can defend Monday's gains.