Series A Rounds Fell 28% as $100M AI Megarounds Grab Headlines

U.S. startups closed 272 Series A rounds in the third quarter, down about 28% from 377 a year earlier, according to Crunchbase data. That squeeze sits behind a flashy headline: global startups have closed at least 114 Series A rounds of $100 million or more so far this year, Crunchbase reported in late September, and more than 70% of them went to AI companies.

For most seed founders, the megadeals are noise. The real story is how few Series A rounds are getting done at all.

Seed activity held up better: 984 U.S. seed rounds in the third quarter versus 1,059 a year earlier. And the checks keep getting bigger. The median U.S. seed round was about $3 million last year, triple its 2018 level, according to Crunchbase. Bigger checks, fewer graduations.

Only 24% of companies that raised a $1 million-plus seed in 2023 have moved past seed, Crunchbase data shows. For the 2024 cohort, the figure is 16%, down from 55% or higher through 2020. That's the cliff founders now face.

What do Series A investors expect now?

Uncork Capital's Andy McLoughlin told Crunchbase News that Series A investors now expect $2 million to $3 million in annual recurring revenue, sometimes $4 million. The time from seed to A has also stretched past two years.

His practical rule: if a seed round won't carry a startup to that revenue bar with six months to spare, a smaller round is the better deal. Raising big and falling short burns the runway that matters.

A bigger seed isn't required. Take Atomic, a New York-based supply chain planning software company founded in 2023, which is not an MGV portfolio company. It raised a $3 million seed in April 2025, right at the median, led by Madrona and DVx Ventures. About 17 months later, it closed a $12.5 million Series A led by Madrona and Klass Capital.

How should founders prepare?

Marc Schröder, co-founder and managing partner of MGV, lays out the playbook in a Crunchbase News analysis. Funds of $100 million to $500 million typically lead the Series A, so founders should identify which ones lead at their stage and when their current fund closes, then send the right partners updates for a year before asking for anything.

The Series A bar is now a revenue bar, which makes it a go-to-market problem first, Schröder writes. Most seed companies he meets have a stronger product than sales motion.

At MGV, that work starts with a first session called Sales Jumpstart: the firm interviews the founders and their team, then scores the company on a proprietary matrix covering where it is today, where it should be, and what it needs to become a scalable go-to-market machine. Founders then work through workshops on:

• Outbound reach and qualification
• Profiling and the funnel
• Objection handling
• Hiring assessment and compensation plans
• Fundraising, deck building, storytelling and investor intros

Mentoring runs alongside the workshops.

Schröder's bottom line: a company at $2 million in ARR with a sales process a new hire can run is a better Series A candidate than one at $3 million built on founder-led deals nobody else can repeat.

The founders who make it, he writes, are already planning for the round after this one.