SpaceX Would Pay Nearly Half Its Earnings for Tesla, Fortune Analysis Finds

By Olivia Hart

Elon Musk's proposed SpaceX-Tesla merger would cost SpaceX the equivalent of 92% of its outstanding shares — and hand nearly half of its future earnings to Tesla's selling shareholders. That is the calculation Fortune's Shawn Tully lays out, and the arithmetic is blunt. SpaceX, valued at $2.14 trillion, would need to shell out $1.98 trillion for Tesla, whose market cap sits at $1.52 trillion with a 30% acquisition premium tacked on. The share count would jump from 13.1 billion to 25 billion.

What does SpaceX get back? Tesla booked just $3.28 billion in GAAP net profits over the past four quarters — a rounding error against a $1.98 trillion price tag. SpaceX's bottom line is growing; Tesla's is dropping. Tully's conclusion: the deal is a dilutive nightmare for the Starlink provider. Note what Musk has not offered publicly: any rebuttal to the per-share math. Takeaway: the merger's appeal rests on narrative, not on earnings.

Is Burnham planning a snap U.K. election?

ING's James Smith thinks so, despite Prime Minister Andy Burnham's on-record pledge last month not to call an unscheduled vote before 2029. Smith's reasoning, laid out in a note: watch what Burnham does, not what he says. Two clues stand out.

• Burnham pushed a major spending review into autumn 2027. "If you're also thinking of an early election, then a Spending Review is something you'd almost certainly want to do afterwards," Smith wrote.
• U.K. rates are rising, and only 3% of British mortgages are fixed for more than five years. Refinancing homeowners face monthly increases of hundreds of pounds — a reason to vote now, while most borrowers still sit on yesterday's low rates.

The politics help too. Labour trails in polls but enjoys a "Burnham bounce," while the right splits three ways: Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives, Nigel Farage's Reform U.K. and Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain. Under first-past-the-post, "elections are won or lost depending on which side of the political divide is least split," Smith notes. He believes Burnham could replicate Starmer's 2024 feat: a parliamentary majority on a minority of votes. "I think all roads increasingly lead in that direction," he said. The theory is coherent; it remains a theory.

Why did markets sell off worldwide?

S&P 500 futures fell more than 1% before the New York open; Nasdaq futures dropped 1.82%. Asia and Europe fell in step. The drivers: Iran-backed Houthi drone strikes on Saudi airports and the Shaybah oil field; a U.S. order to vacate its Riyadh embassy; four ships droned in the Strait of Hormuz in 24 hours; and reports that Washington and Israel plan to restart major combat against Iran after America's midterms. Brent crude rose to $112 per barrel.

Deutsche Bank's Michael Hsueh reports Hormuz attacks remain at record highs even as Gulf oil flows recover, with supertanker charter prices doubled — keeping oil above $110. China's CSI 300 fell 1.84%, down 15% year to date, after the Journal reported Iran's "shadow fleet" supply to China is exhausted. South Korea's KOSPI lost 3.52%; Japan's Nikkei 225 lost 2.65%.

Tesla fell 5.35% after hours, having cut 2026 capex guidance from $25 billion to $20 billion. "That raised questions about the speed of its transition into AI and robotics, while current revenue and earnings were close to expectations," Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid said. French 10-year yields hit 5.1%, a level unseen since 2002. Bitcoin slipped to $81,922.

How expensive is U.S. childcare?

Bank of America Institute's Taylor Bowley and Jon Kaplan found 7.7% of American parents now pay over $2,000 a month for childcare. That top band has doubled in share since 2023, while the number of parents paying for care at all fell 1% year on year — families are dropping out, not just paying up.

Why does OnlyFans want a banking license?

CEO Keily Blair, speaking at the Fortune Most Powerful Women Summit, said OnlyFans will offer financial services to its 2.5 million creators, many of whom mainstream banks reject. Blair said she herself has been rejected by a bank for running the company. Her pitch: "We have full visibility into the content that's being created. There's a huge difference between perceived risk and actual risk." The platform took $1.55 billion in 2025 revenue — its 20% cut of $7.85 billion processed. "We're thinking about that pathway towards an IPO and working toward that as a potential goal for the company," Blair said. An IPO timeline went unmentioned — the roadmap so far is words, not filings.