Tesla Expected to Report 461,000 Q3 Deliveries, a 7% Drop

Tesla is expected to report 461,000 third-quarter vehicle deliveries on Friday, a 7% decline from a year ago, according to analyst estimates compiled by FactSet. The figure would also mark a drop of roughly 4% from the second quarter.

The bar was set unusually high a year ago. Tesla sold 497,000 EVs in the third quarter of 2025, its second-best quarterly performance ever, as the Trump administration's decision to end federal tax credits by Sept. 30, 2025 pushed consumers to accelerate purchases. Experts say a year-on-year decline this quarter was widely expected once that pull-forward effect faded.

How weak is the broader EV market?

The slump is not Tesla-specific. Research firm Cox Automotive has forecast a 45% drop in overall US EV sales for the third quarter versus a year earlier, and a 3% decrease compared with the June quarter.

Stephanie Valdez Streaty, Cox's director of industry insights, said on a recent webinar that new EV sales were "stabilizing." Hybrids, by contrast, are the "clearest growth story" in the electrified-car market, she said — a win for companies like Toyota Motor.

Two Tesla-specific factors have weighed on volumes, according to analysts:

• The company stopped selling a pair of luxury cars earlier this year to free up capacity at its Fremont, Calif., factory for humanoid robot production.
• Elevated fuel costs in the US have failed to lift EV demand, RBC analyst Tom Narayan said.

What about Europe and China?

Tesla's declines span its three largest markets. Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney wrote in a recent note to clients that European registration data will likely reflect a 25% to 35% sales decline in the third quarter compared with the same period last year. In China, he estimated sales were down in the "high-teens range" year over year.

The weakness matters because car sales generate the bulk of Tesla's revenue — the cash that funds flashier projects such as robotaxis and humanoid robots. Tesla expects to spend more than $25 billion on capital projects this year, likely making 2026 its most expensive year on record. Earlier this week, the company secured $30 billion in senior unsecured credit facilities to help fund those plans.

Do deliveries still move the stock?

Investor attention has shifted. Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein told MarketWatch that what investors really care about is progress on robotaxis and robots.

"We do not believe that vehicle deliveries matter that much for the stock (though note it can create noise on the day they are reported) as investors increasingly are not focused on the traditional auto business," UBS analyst Joseph Spak wrote in a note to clients.

Beyond cars, analysts expect Tesla to have deployed 15.9 gigawatt hours of energy-storage products last quarter, according to estimates compiled by the company.

Friday's report may carry less long-term weight for the share price than in past quarters — but with a $25 billion capital budget and a $30 billion credit line behind it, Tesla needs the auto business to keep funding the story investors are actually pricing in.