Three Chip Stocks Wall Street Models to Triple Revenue by 2029

Lumentum Holdings, Aehr Test Systems, and Navitas Semiconductor could each triple or more their top lines by fiscal 2029, according to consensus estimates reviewed at Citi's 2026 Global TMT Conference this month.

What do the numbers look like?

Lumentum (LITE) finished fiscal 2026 at roughly $3.0 billion in revenue. The Street now models $9.6 billion by fiscal 2028 and $13.7 billion by fiscal 2029, a 4.5x lift in three years.

Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) sits at the opposite end of the size spectrum. Fiscal 2026 revenue fell 15% to $50 million. Management then guided fiscal 2027 to $130 million to $150 million, roughly 160% to 200% growth, on effective backlog of about $100 million. Consensus for fiscal 2027 sits at $136 million, with $271 million projected by fiscal 2029.

Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) closed fiscal 2026 at $46 million. Consensus expects $200 million by fiscal 2029.

Why Lumentum?

AI data centers move data between chips using light rather than copper wire, and Lumentum makes the lasers that do the converting. Management told the Citi conference it cannot build those lasers fast enough to fill orders through 2027.

Two waves drive the demand. The first connects racks to each other across the data center, which management expects to double in 2027. The second connects GPUs to each other inside a single rack, which takes far more optical parts per rack and should grow another 3x to 4x in 2028.

Lumentum also raised its fiscal 2028 earnings target to $40 per share on stronger demand from its largest customer for optical switches, a newer product that redirects the light beam itself instead of converting it back to electricity first.

Customers, management added, are still paying elevated prices rather than negotiating them down.

What does Aehr actually do?

Before a chip ships, it gets stress-tested at high heat and voltage to weed out parts that would fail early. The process is called burn-in, and Aehr makes the equipment that runs it. The work matters more for AI chips than for ordinary ones.

A single bad GPU can take down a rack holding thousands of them. Finding the failure after installation costs far more than catching it at the factory.

The Street had modeled roughly $85 million for fiscal 2027 before management's guidance. That guidance excludes any memory revenue, which management frames as later upside.

Where does Navitas fit?

Grid electricity arrives at a data center at thousands of volts. The chips inside run on less than one. Something has to step that power down, and every conversion wastes some energy as heat.

Navitas makes chips that handle those conversions using gallium nitride and silicon carbide instead of ordinary silicon. The materials waste less power and take up less space.

What has to go right?

Tripling revenue in three years is a rare call on Wall Street, and each name carries a different risk. Lumentum's growth depends on AI capex holding at hyperscaler scale and optical switching becoming the default rack architecture.

Aehr's numbers assume AI chip volumes continue to climb and burn-in testing remains a non-negotiable step before shipment. Any shift toward alternative testing approaches would compress its addressable market.

Navitas's trajectory hinges on data center operators converting power infrastructure to gallium nitride and silicon carbide at scale. That adoption curve has historically moved slower than the materials' proponents expect.

All three names share one trait. Each presented at the same conference, and each pitch rests on a specific physical bottleneck in the AI buildout. Bottlenecks can clear, and they can also tighten further.