Citi: Starship's 14th Flight Moves SpaceX Toward a $12.2 Trillion Valuation

Citi says SpaceX's successful 14th Starship flight is a "step" toward the stock reaching $900 or more per share — a level that would value the company at roughly $12.2 trillion.

That figure, laid out in a Tuesday note from Citi analysts led by John Godyn, would make SpaceX worth more than twice Nvidia's current market value. SpaceX trades at a market capitalization of around $2 trillion today.

The gap between $2 trillion and $12.2 trillion is the widest of any single-name bull case on Wall Street's space coverage. Godyn's team argues the latest launch closes a small but real part of it.

What did Starship actually accomplish?

On Monday, SpaceX delivered to orbit its first "meaningful payload": 26 Starlink satellites carried aboard Starship, the world's largest and most powerful rocket.

The milestone matters because previous Starship test flights had not demonstrated the rocket's ability to carry revenue-generating cargo. The 14th flight did. According to Citi, the launch advances several of SpaceX's priorities at once — the same priorities underpinning the long-run $900 price target the bank has kept on the shares.

SpaceX stock closed up 2.28% in the session, against a modest 0.14% gain for Nvidia, the company it would need to more than double to reach the $12.2 trillion mark.

Why are analysts floating trillion-dollar valuations?

Citi is not alone in attaching astronomical numbers to SpaceX. As MarketWatch's William Gavin reported, numerous analysts covering the company have floated outsized valuations, and Wall Street banks have maintained elevated price targets on the stock even as SpaceX worked to get Starship flying reliably again.

The bull case rests on execution. Each Starship flight that works — and each new capability demonstrated, such as carrying commercial payloads — reduces the risk premium investors attach to targets that currently look extreme.

The numbers frame the stakes plainly:

• Current SpaceX market capitalization: about $2 trillion
• Citi's long-run price target: $900 per share or more
• Implied valuation: roughly $12.2 trillion
• Reference point: more than twice Nvidia's market value today
• Payload delivered on Flight 14: 26 Starlink satellites, the first "meaningful payload" to orbit

What comes next?

For the $12.2 trillion scenario to hold, SpaceX must keep converting test milestones into operational capability. The 14th flight showed the rocket can haul paying cargo; analysts led by Godyn frame that as one step among the several priorities the company must clear on the path to $900 per share.