TradingShot Maps Nasdaq Correction to a 25,500 Test

By Nathan Brooks

The NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX) hit TradingShot’s 26,500 target, dated November 2, and was rebounding strongly as trading opened. TradingShot said the move came after the index nearly reached the bottom of its two-year upward channel and its 1M MA20, a line that contained the recent March 2026 bearish leg.

TradingShot’s next focus is the 1W MA100, which the author expects the index to test if the correction follows its historical pattern. The author said the Nasdaq has remained within a rising channel dating to the bottom of the U.S. housing crisis in November 2008.

On the cyclical macro scale used in the analysis, the index reached the 1W MA100 every time it broke below the 1M MA20. TradingShot’s chart counts seven breakdowns below the 1W MA100 followed by bottoms and rebounds in 15 years. TradingShot therefore treats the 1W MA100 as the primary test for this cycle, rather than the 1M MA50.

TradingShot calls that sequence the market’s most usual correction pattern. The sole deeper outcome in the sample came in September 2022, when the index broke the 1W MA100 and continued to a bottom on its 1M MA50 during the Inflation Crisis. Six of the seven highlighted sequences ended with a rebound; September 2022 supplied the only continuation case.

TradingShot said the corrections, including the 1M MA50 case, landed in the 0.618–0.382 channel Fibonacci range, with all but one inside it. The author labels that band the Fair Value Zone and uses it as the broader area for a potential retest. The two retracement levels define a band covering roughly one-quarter of the channel range.

TradingShot wrote: “If this time the market hits its 1W MA100 indeed as it tends to do cyclically, then contact is expected around 25500 (Target).” That places the target 1,000 index points, or about 3.8%, below TradingShot’s 26,500 rebound level.

TradingShot expects a typical bottom wick below the 1W MA100 to return the index to the Fair Value Zone. A test of the 1M MA50 would instead place the correction near the bottom, and more toward the middle, of that zone. TradingShot considers that outcome unlikely now because it would require a fundamental macro catalyst.

The 1M RSI had warned about the correction since June, according to TradingShot. The monthly gauge turned down at a 19-year resistance zone and formed a lower-highs bearish divergence, a setup the author said matched the previous three major corrections.

TradingShot’s chart also identifies a clear support zone for the 1M RSI. If Nasdaq reaches that support before the index reaches 25,500, TradingShot said it would “turn bullish on the index regardless of the price.”

What does this change for traders?

It gives traders two separate triggers in TradingShot’s framework. The price trigger is a move to 25,500, followed by a typical bottom wick below the 1W MA100 and a return to the Fair Value Zone.

The RSI trigger comes earlier. If the 1M RSI reaches its support zone before Nasdaq reaches 25,500, TradingShot said it would turn bullish regardless of price, letting the author’s stance change before the moving-average target is touched.

For execution, that difference separates traders who act on the RSI support from those waiting for price confirmation. TradingShot’s base case remains a test of 25,500 and the 1W MA100, while the deeper route to the 1M MA50 requires the fundamental macro catalyst that the author currently considers unlikely.

TradingShot’s next signal will come from whichever arrives first: 25,500 on the chart or the 1M RSI support zone. The author’s bullish reversal call depends on the latter, while the base-case correction target remains the former.