U.S. Chamber Warns 25% Brazil Tariffs Risk Trade Spiral

The U.S. Trade Representative has announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on Brazilian goods, prompting the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to call for a return to negotiations before a trade spiral takes hold.

Neil Herrington, the Chamber's Senior Vice President for the Americas, issued a formal statement hours after the USTR's announcement. His message to Washington and Brasília: step back from the brink.

"The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is deeply concerned about the recent announcement by the U.S. Trade Representative of its intent to impose 25% tariffs on Brazil, which quickly prompted threats of retaliation from the Brazilian government," Herrington said.

Why is the Chamber pushing back?

The Chamber framed the moment as the exact scenario it had predicted. "It's precisely the damaging escalatory spiral we've warned since the outset of the Section 301 process could have far reaching negative implications for American businesses, workers and supply chains," Herrington said.

The Chamber has been warning about escalation since the outset of the Section 301 process. Each new step toward duties, the group argued, raises the cost of a miscalculation.

What does the Chamber want from both sides?

Herrington's prescription is procedural: keep the conversation inside the Section 301 process and negotiate in good faith.

"We therefore reiterate our longstanding request that the two governments use the Section 301 process to negotiate in good faith to address persistent bilateral trade challenges in areas such ethanol market access, digital trade and intellectual property protection," he said.

The three areas Herrington named are core friction points in the bilateral relationship:

• Ethanol market access has been a recurring complaint from U.S. producers pushing for more open access to the Brazilian market.
• Digital trade has run into persistent disagreements over how cross-border commerce is regulated.
• Intellectual property protection remains an area where U.S. industry has pressed for stronger enforcement in Brazil.

The statement did not set a target date for talks or specify which side should move first.

What is the retaliation risk?

The Chamber's immediate concern is the speed of Brasília's response. The Brazilian government has publicly threatened to retaliate, though the statement did not name the products or rate under consideration.

Retaliation would land on U.S. exporters, and the Chamber's warning that American businesses, workers, and supply chains would absorb the damage points to that exposure.

What could escalation cost?

The statement stopped short of putting a dollar figure on bilateral trade at risk. The product coverage of the proposed 25% tariff has not been detailed in the Chamber's release.

What is clear is the framing. An escalation, the Chamber warned, "risks undermining the mutually-beneficial economic part[nership]" the two countries have built — a phrase that captures the business lobby's central concern.

What comes next?

The Chamber has made its position clear: keep talks at the center. The USTR's announcement sets the process in motion; the Brazilian response will determine how far it goes.

If Brasília agrees to negotiate under Section 301, the 25% rate may never take effect. If retaliation comes first, both economies will absorb the cost. The Chamber has bet on the negotiating track. Brasília and Washington have not yet signaled which way they will go.