U.S. Gasoline Below $4 as Thanksgiving Record Looms

By Nathan Brooks

The U.S. average gasoline price fell to $3.96 a gallon on Monday, down nearly 16 cents over the previous week, according to GasBuddy. It was the first national average below $4 since August.

GasBuddy expects prices to keep declining in the coming weeks, with an average of about $3.75 by Thanksgiving. That forecast would leave drivers with the highest prices during the Thanksgiving travel period since at least 2000 and the highest nominal holiday price on record.

At $3.75, the projected average would sit 19 cents, or about 5.3%, above the previous most-expensive Thanksgiving in 2022, when the average was $3.56. GasBuddy’s forecast therefore offers relief from Monday’s level without erasing the holiday record.

What does this change for Thanksgiving drivers?

At the forecast average, a 50-gallon fill-up would cost about $187.50, roughly $9.50 more than at the 2022 Thanksgiving average. Drivers would pay less than at Monday’s $3.96 national average, but the expected endpoint remains higher than any comparable nominal price in GasBuddy’s data since 2000.

AAA, the nonprofit federation of regional motor clubs, said late last week that pump prices remained the highest ever recorded at that point of the year. Its data showed that, before 2026, the national average had never risen above $4 a gallon during November.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said the current drop is one of the larger declines the company has seen in the run-up to Thanksgiving in a while. He said: “I don’t think there’s much ability for us to avoid this being the most expensive Thanksgiving on record” for gas prices.

He said the unusually steep move reflected the elevated level from which prices began. His $3.75 forecast would mark the highest nominal Thanksgiving cost, while an inflation adjustment would put the most expensive holiday in 2011 or 2012.

The oil and geopolitical drivers

The national decline followed a nearly 13% fall in U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil prices last week, GasBuddy said. De Haan also said gasoline prices normally fall after summer as the high-demand travel season winds down.

A White House official said oil prices fell by almost $10 a barrel and gasoline prices dropped 16 cents a gallon in one week. The official also said more oil was flowing out of the Persian Gulf than before the Iran conflict began.

MarketWatch reported that, after brutal Republican losses in the midterm elections, President Donald Trump suggested he was not looking to attack Iran soon. De Haan said Trump’s comments downplaying the risk of further U.S. military escalation with Iran contributed to falling oil and gasoline prices; Trump made the suggestion in a “60 Minutes” interview on Sunday.

The White House did not answer MarketWatch’s question about whether U.S. escalation with Iran remained unlikely. De Haan said the direction of prices now depends on geopolitical calm rather than a guaranteed trend.

The election-cycle effect

De Haan said gas prices typically drop in the run-up to U.S. elections. In the 30 days before an election, prices declined in every election year since 2006 except 2010, he said. Republicans saw sweeping gains in the November 2010 midterm elections.

The strength of the current decline remains unusual because prices were so elevated before the drop. That distinction explains how a steep weekly fall can coexist with GasBuddy’s forecast for a record holiday average.

The risk to the forecast

“How long we’re on this trajectory of falling prices is really more of how quiet it is with geopolitical tensions,” De Haan said. He said calmer tensions can lead to lower oil prices, while renewed escalation could lift them again.

For Thanksgiving drivers, the near-term direction is lower prices, but the likely endpoint is still a record. GasBuddy’s $3.75 forecast leaves the holiday average 19 cents above 2022, and De Haan said renewed Iran tensions remain the key condition that could reverse the decline.