UK Heating Oil Prices Up 75% as Customers Gamble on Delaying Orders

UK heating oil prices have climbed roughly 75% since the start of the Iran conflict on 28 February, according to price comparison site BoilerJuice. That single statistic explains an unusual pattern now showing up in southern England: suppliers heading into the cold season with fewer orders than they expect.

Marsh Fuels, a Newbury-based firm supplying heating oil across Berkshire and Hampshire, says its sales are lower than expected as colder weather approaches. Director Dave Marsh believes he knows why. "We're coming into autumn and we would expect to be busier than we are," he said.

"And so we've made the assumption that customers are hanging on, trying to eke out that little bit of oil they've still got left in the bottom of their tank, hoping for the price to dip," Marsh said. "The problem is that can be quite risky. If we get a cold snap and the customers are lower than they think they are, they may suddenly be urgent."

The strategy carries two costs. Households risk running dry in freezing weather, when emergency deliveries become both urgent and potentially more expensive. Waiting also offers no guarantee of relief, because the market has shown little sign of turning.

Buyers hold off

Andrew Illingworth, who buys oil collectively on behalf of residents in Broughton, Hampshire, confirms the pattern. He is handling fewer orders than normal for the time of year. "A lot of them are holding off at the moment," he said. "They're hoping that it's going to go back down again, but who knows at the moment."

Chris Wheeler, from Bucklebury in Berkshire, described the volatility — a series of surges and dips — as "frustrating". "You never know what's going to happen," he said. "Except at the moment all you can expect is that the price is going to go up. So we're trying to manage our purchases so that we can buy it when it's at its cheapest."

Expert advice: buy now

Ellen Fraser, an energy expert at the Baringa consultancy, has made her own position clear. She would buy oil now. "We're expecting those prices to stay high until at least April and May, which is obviously far too late to fill the tank," she told the Money Box programme on BBC Radio 4.

If Fraser's forecast holds, households waiting for a springtime dip face an entire winter at elevated prices — with the added risk of running out mid-cold-snap.

Industry and government response

The Fuel Distribution Association (UKIFDA) has previously advised customers to prepare for periods of increased demand, severe weather or unexpected delivery delays. Chief executive Ken Mackness pointed to recent market history as a warning. "The events we saw earlier this year demonstrated how quickly international developments can affect wholesale energy markets," he said.

The government has already moved once. In March it announced a £50m emergency fund to help struggling families cover heating oil costs, a signal that policymakers view the price surge as a genuine household budget pressure rather than a passing spike.

For the roughly 1.5 million-plus UK homes off the gas grid that rely on heating oil, the calculus is now stark. Waiting is a bet on geopolitical de-escalation and falling wholesale prices, a bet that Baringa's Fraser says will not pay off before April at the earliest. With UKIFDA warning about delivery delays during demand peaks, the households most exposed this winter may be the ones still watching the tank gauge.