US Home Sales Under Contract Fell 10.5% in October, Worst Since 2023

Homes under contract in the United States dropped 10.5% in October compared with a year earlier — the steepest decline since late 2023, according to Realtor.com's monthly housing report. New listings fell 7.5% year over year, yet the market is not breaking. Sellers are pausing, not fleeing.

"The market is cooling on both sides, but in different ways," Realtor.com's chief economist, Danielle Hale, said. "Buyers are stepping back as higher mortgage rates cut into their buying power, while sellers are listing less often without a broad increase in delistings or price cuts." She added: "We're seeing a pause in new supply, but owners who already have homes on the market appear to be largely [unfazed]."

How weak is supply, really?

The supply picture is softer than at any point since before the pandemic. New listings in October were down not only 7.5% against October 2025 but also 16% against October 2019, the last normal pre-COVID autumn. That gap means roughly one in six would-be listings from a typical 2019 market simply did not appear this year.

Delistings tell a different story. Just 4.4% of active listings were pulled from the market last month, a slight improvement over October of last year. In plain terms: fewer homes are coming up for sale, but those already listed are mostly staying listed. Supply is thinning at the entrance, not draining at the exit.

What are rates doing to prices?

Mortgage costs remain the engine of the slowdown. The 30-year mortgage average hovered around 7.33% last month. One in five listings took a price cut in October, compared with 3% in 2019 — a nearly sevenfold increase in the share of sellers discounting. October also marked the 12th straight monthly decline in the national median list price, which fell 2.2% to $415,000.

"Rates eased to 7.24% on October 29, down from 7.40% in mid-October, but they remained 107 basis points above a year ago and 53 basis points above early September," Realtor.com's senior economist, Jake Krimmel, said. "That loss of purchasing power is showing up first in demand." A 107-basis-point gap means a buyer today pays materially more per month for the same loan than a year ago — roughly the difference between qualifying and not qualifying for many households.

Why aren't sellers bailing?

The gridlock traces to the rate lock-in effect. Homeowners who bought between 2020 and mid-2022 hold mortgages at 4% or lower — rates most of the real estate world does not expect to return anytime soon. Many are staying put rather than swapping a 4% loan for one near 7.33%.

That arithmetic shapes who sells at all. Anyone opting to list now, given current conditions, likely does not have much choice in the matter — job moves, divorce, or financial necessity, not opportunity. Distressed exits remain limited, however. "On the seller side, we see more of a pause than an exodus," Krimmel said. "We also haven't seen a meaningful increase in delistings. As we approach the holidays, a seller pulling a listing around Halloween or Thanksgiving is not necessarily showing the same distress as one who exits in midsummer."

What comes next?

Homebuying customarily slows through the holiday season, so October's weakness alone proves little. Realtor.com itself framed the coming months as an "important test" of the balance between pricing and available inventory. The takeaway is straightforward: buyers are losing purchasing power faster than sellers are losing patience, and the months ahead will show which side blinks first.