USD/JPY Hits 160 as Traders Bet 90% on December Fed Hike

USD/JPY traded as high as roughly 160.04 on Thursday, November 12, as the U.S. dollar surged on renewed Federal Reserve tightening expectations, according to broker tastyfx. Markets now price roughly a 90% chance of another December rate hike, while the 10-year Treasury yield has pushed back above 5%.

That widening U.S.-Japan rate gap keeps overwhelming the yen, and it lands just as Japan's own inflation problem gets worse. Japan's October wholesale inflation accelerated to 7.1%, per tastyfx's analysis. Yen-based import prices jumped 24.8% year-over-year, highlighting how currency weakness feeds directly into domestic costs.

That is why 160 matters right now. Japan's top currency official, Atsushi Mimura, called recent moves "excessively rapid" and reminded markets not to forget this summer's intervention. Tokyo continues coordinating closely with the U.S. Treasury, tastyfx notes.

Is Japan about to intervene again?

There is no confirmed intervention or rate check today. But the escalation ladder is becoming clear, tastyfx argues. It runs in three steps:

• Stronger verbal warnings first
• Then potentially rate checks
• Followed by MOF-directed yen purchases executed through the Bank of Japan if the move becomes disorderly

Parts of the BOJ still argue for caution on further hikes, so monetary policy alone is not yet closing the gap. For now, USD/JPY remains a tug-of-war between a fundamentally strong U.S. dollar and an increasingly credible threat that Tokyo steps back into the market above 160.

What do the charts show?

USD/JPY is pressing straight into the intervention zone again. Price sits around 159.85 after trading above 160 intraday. The pair has now reclaimed the 21-, 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages, which tastyfx calls a meaningful technical repair after the September washout.

The short-term structure has flipped back bullish. But the market is immediately running into the 160.40 area, the next major resistance shelf and the exact zone where intervention risk becomes part of the chart, not just the macro story.

How stretched is the momentum?

Momentum is strong but stretched. MACD is positive and accelerating, with the histogram expanding. That says the U.S. dollar still has control, per tastyfx.

Stochastics sit above 90, so the pair is deeply overbought heading into resistance. That does not mean it has to reverse. But it does mean chasing above 160 has poor asymmetry when Tokyo can hit the tape without warning.

The setup leaves traders with a lopsided risk picture. Every basis point of additional Fed repricing pushes the pair deeper into the zone where Mimura's ministry has already acted once this summer, and the 90% December-hike pricing suggests that repricing is not finished yet.