WTI at 88.104: One Close Could Break an Eight-Month Range

By Grace Kim

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) cash crude traded at 88.104, up 0.84% on the session, on the lower boundary of an eight-month range, according to TradingView author gisabdib.

In the analysis, gisabdib wrote:

“WTI is at 88.104, up 0.84% on the session, trading directly on the lower boundary of the range that has defined this market all year.”

The range runs from a floor near 85 to a ceiling near 107. Price has made the full round trip three times, gisabdib said. The author assessed that the structure had not changed in eight months.

What does the eight-month range show?

gisabdib's chart showed repetition rather than direction. It counted three full trips from one edge to the other and back, with the floor near 85 and the ceiling near 107 unchanged throughout, the author said.

Takeaway: gisabdib still treats 85-107 as the market's operative range.

What changed in October?

In October, WTI bounced from the same floor and ran to the top. It reached 106 in early November before reversing and giving back the entire move in less than two weeks, gisabdib said.

The author called that rejection the third failure at 107 that year. At 88.104, price had returned to the lower boundary again.

Takeaway: gisabdib counted another rejection at the ceiling, not a breakout.

What do the moving averages show?

The decline turned the moving-average configuration. The 50 EMA at 91.985 crossed back below the 200 EMA at 95.334, and WTI sat beneath both, gisabdib said.

During October's advance, the configuration was the opposite. The author said the averages flip with each leg rather than establish a trend, which is how a range appears on the averages.

Takeaway: gisabdib saw the averages flipping with the range, not setting a sustained trend.

What does RSI show?

RSI stood at 41.94, above its 30.19 signal line. The indicator had dipped into the low 20s during the selloff before recovering slightly, gisabdib said.

The author described momentum as stabilizing at the same place as price: the floor.

Takeaway: Momentum was recovering at the floor, in gisabdib's read.

Where are the key levels?

gisabdib's level map was:

• Support — 85: The author called 85 essentially where price was trading and said the boundary had held every test since March. A four-hour close below it would break the eight-month structure and open the chart toward 80, then the July low near 68.
• Resistance — 91.985, then 95.334, then 100 and 107: The first two levels were the 50 EMA and 200 EMA, gisabdib said. The 107 level marked the range ceiling.

Takeaway: gisabdib made 85 the downside trigger, with four resistance levels above it.

What could break the range?

WTI had arrived at a range edge with momentum recovering from an extreme. gisabdib said that combination matched the setup that produced October's bounce, when price moved off the floor and ran to the top.

“The difference between a fourth round trip and a breakdown is a single close.”

That makes the 85 floor the immediate decision point in gisabdib's framework. One four-hour close below it would break the eight-month structure and put 80 on the path, followed by the July low near 68. If the floor holds, the analysis keeps a fourth round trip in play.

What comes next: For gisabdib, the next four-hour close decides the range: below 85 would target 80 and the July low near 68; above it leaves a fourth round trip in play.