WTI Oil Weekend Gaps Rose as Monday Fill Rates Fell to 68%

By Amara Osei

WTI crude oil’s median weekend opening gap was 0.26% from January 2023 through 16 October 2026, five times the 0.05% median at a weekday break, SignalPilotLabs found. Across that period, 145 of 188 measurable gaps, or 77%, closed during the following Monday session.

What did SignalPilotLabs measure?

SignalPilotLabs used TradingView’s daily candles for WTI oil, identified on the platform as TVC:USOIL. For each weekend, it compared Monday’s first price, set when trading resumed on Sunday evening, with Friday’s close.

The sample covered 191 weekends and 759 weekday breaks from January 2023 to 16 October 2026. SignalPilotLabs measured the same jump at each weekday break for comparison.

SignalPilotLabs declared the fill question on 17 October, before reading a single oil candle. It noted that oil trading stops from Friday evening to Sunday evening, while news continues to arrive.

How large did weekend gaps become?

Of 191 weekends, 44, or 23%, gapped more than 1%, SignalPilotLabs found. Of those 44, 21 gapped more than 2%, equal to 11% of all weekends; the largest arrived on Monday, 2 March 2026, at +11.5%.

Do weekend gaps fill?

By the end of the week, 163 of the 188 gaps had closed, or 87%. SignalPilotLabs counted 25 still open at week’s end; three other weekends had no gap.

Has the fill pattern changed?

SignalPilotLabs split the 191 weekends into halves afterward, a check it had not declared in advance. Before 25 November 2024, the median gap was 0.16%, and 87% filled on Monday; since then, the median was 0.60%, and 68% filled on Monday.

A weekday break changed little, with the median moving from 0.05% to 0.06%. SignalPilotLabs said the weekend’s lead grew from about three times to about 10 times.

Most of the rise came in 2026, when 39 weekends had a median gap of 1.38%. SignalPilotLabs said oil futures on NYMEX showed the same jump, so the pattern was not a quirk of its price feed.

How did data corrections affect the result?

From October 2021 to December 2022, the dataset recorded 49 of 62 Monday opens equal to Friday’s close. SignalPilotLabs said those would have counted as 49 no-gap weekends, which is why its record starts in January 2023.

TradingView’s oil price switches contracts mid-month at a weekday break. SignalPilotLabs reran the figures without Mondays dated from the 12th to the 21st; the median was 0.25%, and 21% of weekends exceeded 1%.

What does the chart show?

SignalPilotLabs’ chart shows WTI oil in four-hour candles from 4 September to 16 October 2026. Orange boxes mark each weekend gap from Friday’s close to Sunday’s open, cells below give the size in percent, and Monday sessions are shaded blue.

Five of the six gaps filled on their Monday. The +2.3% gap of 14 September filled later that week; two gray boxes mark Thursday-evening contract rolls of -4.6% and -1.4%, not weekends.

Can the record predict the next weekend?

SignalPilotLabs said the record cannot establish which way the next weekend will gap or whether it will fill. The gaps leaned upward 111 to 77 in a rising market, but the study said that describes the past, not the next weekend.

It ran no luck test because it did not claim a rule. SignalPilotLabs ended with the caution: "Observations, not recommendations."

The next Sunday open will test whether Monday’s recent 68% fill rate persists. SignalPilotLabs’ data provides no directional signal for the gap or a basis for predicting whether it closes.