Oil Gains of 10% Coincided With Airline Falls in 25 of 38 Months

Daniel Okafor

SignalPilotLabs’ TradingView analysis found that the Dow Jones U.S. Airlines Index fell in 25 of 38 months when WTI crude rose at least 10% from the prior month. That same-month rate reached 65.8%, compared with 45.9% in all other months.

SignalPilotLabs wrote: “That meets the bar we set first: in this record, airline stocks fell more often in the months oil jumped.” Over its latest cited stretch, WTI rose from 70.56 at the end of June to 103.37 in October, up 46.5%. The airline index fell from 309.34 to 244.44, down 21.0%.

Fuel ranks among airlines’ biggest costs. SignalPilotLabs asked whether a monthly oil move reliably coincided with a weaker airline index, then tested every month in the record.

How did SignalPilotLabs test the link?

SignalPilotLabs used monthly closes for the Dow Jones U.S. Airlines Index, identified as DJ:DJUSAR, and WTI crude oil, spot, identified as FRED:DCOILWTICO. The sample ran from April 2001 through September 2026 and covered 306 months.

The analysis defined an oil-up month as one in which WTI closed at least 10% above the previous month. Thirty-eight months met that threshold. Another 38 closed at least 10% below the prior month.

For each group, SignalPilotLabs compared airline-index performance during the same month and the following month against all other months. Before measuring, the author wrote down four tests and the bar for accepting a result.

How strong was the same-month relationship?

In the 38 oil-up months, the airline index fell 25 times, or 65.8%. It fell in 45.9% of all other months. SignalPilotLabs reported that the typical oil-up month produced a 3.3% decline.

A month without a large oil move produced a typical 1.2% gain for the airline index. The reverse relationship was weaker: airline shares rose in 21 of 38 oil-down months, or 55.3%, compared with 51.1% in the other months.

Could random selection explain the result?

SignalPilotLabs drew 38 random months from the record 10,000 times. Only 179 draws produced 25 or more airline-index falls. The result also held when the author divided the record into two periods.

Until 2013, 14 of 20 oil-up months ended with an airline-index decline, a 70.0% rate. Other months produced declines 46.6% of the time. Since 2014, 11 of 18 oil-up months saw a decline, or 61.1%, against 45.2% in the other months.

The oil-down test failed the same statistical standard. Random draws produced an equally strong result in 3,831 of 10,000 trials. From 2014 onward, the relationship moved in the opposite direction.

What happened in the following month?

After an oil-up month, the airline index fell in 21 of 37 cases, or 56.8%. The rate was 47.4% in other months. This follow-through remained weaker than the same-month result.

After an oil-down month, the index rose in 23 of 38 cases, or 60.5%, compared with 50.2% in the other months. Both results leaned in the expected direction.

Random selection performed as well in 1,896 and 1,543 of 10,000 trials. SignalPilotLabs therefore classified neither following-month pattern as a reliable rule.

Which months tested the pattern most?

SignalPilotLabs highlighted several extreme cases:

• Oil’s largest monthly gain occurred in May 2020, at 85.0%. The airline index fell only 0.7% that month.
• In March 2026, oil rose 53.6%. The airline index fell 11.9%.
• Oil’s largest monthly decline came in March 2020, at 54.2%. The airline index also crashed, falling 36.8%.
• The latest oil-up month in the record was September 2026, when oil gained 11.7%. The airline index rose 3.9%, one of 13 oil-up months with a gain.

October fell outside the test period. SignalPilotLabs reported that oil rose 6.4% while airline stocks fell 4.6%.

What does the chart show?

SignalPilotLabs plotted the monthly airline index on a logarithmic scale, where equal steps represent equal percentage moves. The chart covered April 2001 through September 2026 and placed WTI below the airline index.

A short mark identifies every oil-up month. Orange marks a monthly decline in the airline index; gray marks a gain. Twenty-five of the 38 marks were orange. A panel beneath the chart candles groups those months into one row.

What can investors take from the record?

SignalPilotLabs supports one narrow conclusion: when oil rises at least 10% in a month, airline stocks have historically fallen more often during that same month. The record says less about the following month and offers no dependable evidence that an oil slump lifts airline shares.

The study does not explain why a particular month moved. It did not separate possible causes such as fuel hedging, demand or a crash. Nor did it isolate individual airlines or forecast where oil goes next.

Its evidence comes from an index, monthly closes and historical data. SignalPilotLabs warned that FRED’s daily series runs a few days behind, so its October value may not represent the month’s final close.

The author ended with a necessary qualification: “Observations, not recommendations.” Future 10% oil surges will test whether the same-month pattern persists. Until then, the evidence supports watching monthly airline-index declines after oil jumps, not treating them as inevitable or forecasting the following month.