AUDJPY Tests Key Support: Bulls Need Break Above 109.50

AUDJPY is rejecting the lower boundary of its falling channel at a weekly support zone between 108.825 and 109.225, and analyst Richard Nasr says a confirmed break above 109.50 is what would flip the pair's short-term momentum from bearish to bullish.

The call comes from Nasr, who publishes technical analysis on TradingView under the handle TheSignalyst. His read is straightforward: the Australian dollar versus the Japanese yen has been trading inside a descending channel, the red lines on his chart, and that structure has punished buyers for the duration of the move.

Now, though, the price behavior at the channel's floor is starting to look different.

What is happening at support?

According to Nasr's analysis, price has begun rejecting the lower boundary of the falling channel — a level he describes as a potential oversold area. That rejection is not happening in a vacuum. It sits right on top of a weekly support zone between 108.825 and 109.225, marked with dashed blue lines on his chart.

That matters for traders. Weekly-timeframe support is a heavier level than anything visible on a daily or four-hour chart. When sellers push price into it and the candlesticks start closing higher off the zone, it's often the first fingerprint of buyers stepping in.

Nasr is careful with his language here. He writes that the rejection "suggests that buyers may be starting to step in," but he explicitly withholds a bullish call, noting "we still need confirmation before expecting a bullish correction."

What does this change for traders?

The practical question is where confirmation actually lives, and Nasr answers it with a number: 109.50.

That level marks a major swing high on his chart, drawn in green. For the bulls to take over and initiate a correction toward the upper boundary of the falling channel, AUDJPY needs to break above it. In his words, a confirmed breakout above 109.50 "would signal a potential short-term momentum shift from bearish to bullish, opening the door for buy setups."

So the trade logic splits cleanly into two states:

• Below 109.50: the overall bearish structure remains intact, and the channel continues to govern the pair's direction.
• Above 109.50: buyers have confirmation, and a corrective move toward the channel's upper boundary becomes the preferred scenario.

Nasr's key point is one that separates disciplined chart-readers from hopeful ones. As he puts it, "A rejection from support is an early signal, but breaking a major high is what confirms that buyers are gaining control." In other words, the bounce off 108.825-109.225 is a hint, not a verdict. Acting on the hint before the 109.50 breakout leaves a trader positioned against a still-valid downtrend.

The risk framing

Nasr closes his analysis with a disclaimer that readers should take at face value: the piece is "for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice." His sign-off doubles as his risk philosophy — "Always manage your risk. Plan Your Trade and Trade Your Plan" — followed by the line, "All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!"

For anyone trading AUDJPY, the actionable takeaway is a watchlist alert, not a position. The zone between 108.825 and 109.225 is where buyers are defending; the level at 109.50 is where they prove it. Until that green major high gives way, the falling channel — and the bearish structure it represents — remains the controlling force on this pair.