Nasdaq 100 Holds 27,000 Support After 4.9% Weekly Drop

The Nasdaq 100 staged a positive rebound this week after holding the support zone between 27,000 and 26,250, according to a technical review published by CFI on TradingView. That rebound followed a rough stretch. The index fell roughly 4.9% last week and posted losses for four consecutive weeks before buyers returned.

Why does the 27,000–26,250 zone matter?

CFI's analysis, which charts the Nasdaq 100 SPOT under the symbol CFI:US100, breaks the significance of this support band into three technical observations:

• The zone sits along an extended upward trendline that connects a series of previous higher lows.
• It coincides with the 75-week moving average, a level from which prices have managed to stage positive rebounds.
• The same area previously acted as a resistance zone before flipping into support, which the analysis says technically explains the current bounce.

This is a classic support-resistance flip. A price area that capped rallies in the past often attracts buyers once it is broken to the upside, because traders who missed the move treat the old ceiling as a new floor. That mechanism, CFI argues, is what lifted the index this week.

The report frames the stakes plainly: "The key question is whether the Nasdaq Index will manage to hold above these support levels or whether they will give way, prompting the index to search for a new bottom at which to stabilise."

What is driving the market?

On the fundamental side, CFI identifies two main forces behind current price action. The first is the decline in oil prices, which the analysis says "has boosted investors' risk appetite." Cheaper oil eases pressure on costs and inflation expectations, and equities have responded accordingly.

The second is geopolitics. CFI points to a reduced likelihood of further escalation in the region, amid reports that the parties to the conflict have reached an agreement that could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, so its potential reopening feeds directly back into the oil-price picture and, by extension, into equity sentiment.

What comes next?

Inflation data released today will give markets a clearer read on interest rate expectations, CFI notes, ahead of the interest rate decisions scheduled for next month. That puts the inflation print at the center of the near-term trading calculus, because rate expectations remain the primary valuation input for index-level moves.

The analysis does not commit to a directional call. Instead, it sketches a range-bound base case: "Overall, investors are facing a complex and uncertain landscape. Prices are likely to remain within their current sideways range as markets await greater clarity on diplomatic developments and, consequently, the direction of oil prices and inflation."

For index watchers, the practical takeaway is a two-level map. Above 27,000–26,250, the uptrend that CFI tracks remains intact, defined by higher lows and rebounds off the 75-week moving average. Below it, the analysis implies a search for a new stabilisation point, with no lower target named in the report.

The near-term catalysts are specific and dated. Today's inflation data arrives first, the interest rate decisions follow next month, and diplomatic progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz remains the wildcard that could reset the oil-price leg of the trade. Until those inputs resolve, CFI expects the Nasdaq 100 to keep trading sideways within its existing range rather than breaking decisively in either direction.