Broadcast TV Poised to Capture $5.6 Billion of Record Political Ad Spend

Broadcast television is set to capture $5.6 billion — 48% of all political ad spending — ahead of the midterm elections, even as digital platforms grab a growing share, according to advertising intelligence firm AdImpact. The 2025-26 election cycle is forecast to be the most expensive on record, with $11.6 billion in total spending. That tops the $11.2 billion spent during the 2024 presidential cycle and dwarfs the $8.9 billion spent on the 2022 midterms.

By Nathan Brooks

The numbers tell a striking story about scale. Broadcasters pull in roughly half of political ad dollars this cycle, yet they command just 7.7% of the more than $470 billion in general U.S. advertising spend forecast for this year, according to Magna data published by S&P Global in July. Political advertising, in other words, is one of the last arenas where broadcast still dominates.

Why broadcast still wins the political dollar

"It's still a local game," said StoneX Equity Research analyst Daniel Kurnos. "Yes, there are national elections, but you have to win counties. And if you have to win counties, you have to reach voters in these counties."

Broadcast audiences — viewers of NBC, ABC, CBS, Fox and local affiliates — skew more politically active, Kurnos said. "You cater to the demos that vote. You cater to the votes that matter."

Reach and trust do the rest. Despite cord-cutting, broadcast remains free and broadly accessible. Nielsen's monthly Gauge report for July showed broadcast captured 19.5% of television use, ahead of cable at 18.7% and far behind streaming's 49%. Terry Nelson, a founding partner of Plus Communications and national political director for George W. Bush's 2004 reelection campaign, told CNBC broadcast spots let strategists reach large voter pools "as efficiently as we can from a cost perspective." Live sports remain a particular strength. "If you think about an NFL audience, for example, you're still going to deliver big audiences amongst large segments of the population," Nelson said.

Brad Seitter, CEO of TVB, the local broadcast trade group, distilled it to "trust, reach and because it works." He argued social media suffers a trust deficit that broadcast doesn't: "Gaining the trust of a voter equals a vote for your candidate or issue." And his claim of effectiveness comes with data: a TVB study found 42% of Democrats and 49% of Republicans said broadcast or cable TV was the most important advertising medium influencing their vote.

Strategy or muscle memory?

Not everyone buys pure strategy as the explanation. Erik Brydges, head of performance and political demand at ad-tech firm Magnite, credits broadcast's 70-year track record of correlating ad buys with poll movement — but also habit. "A lot of campaigns and a lot of the consultants who work on the campaigns have just been really used to buying TV," he said. "There's an old adage out there that no political consultant is ever going to get fired for suggesting buying more TV."

What does this change for broadcasters?

It changes their margins and their debt math. Kurnos notes political ads are near-pure profit: stations already have the sales infrastructure, and campaigns supply the creative. "Political is just, therefore, pure margin dollars," he said.

The results are already visible in earnings:

• Nexstar Media Group, which owns or operates at least 265 stations, posted its highest quarterly revenue ever — $1.99 billion net, with $862 million in advertising — after closing its acquisition of Tegna in March. Even excluding Tegna, legacy Nexstar grew on $75 million of political ad revenue.
• Gray Media has exposure in 12 competitive Senate races and all 11 competitive gubernatorial races. "Gray has always been the most efficient political generator of the broadcast group," Kurnos said.
• E.W. Scripps reported its highest second-quarter political revenue ever. "No other medium delivers a political message as powerfully and reliably as broadcast television," CEO Adam Symson said on the earnings call.
• Sinclair said political ad revenue grew 9% versus the second quarter of 2022.

The next frontier: connected TV

Connected TV is the fastest-growing political ad category, projected to take 23% of the cycle — $2.7 billion — per AdImpact. Brydges said complexity holds some buyers back: "A campaign or a consultant might not understand what those are. Therefore, they might just be like, 'Well, if I don't understand what it is, then it's probably not worth investment.'" SKDK's Pia Carusone points to sharper targeting: buying NBC in New York means buying the whole market, while streaming delivers audiences "more directly." Her bottom line for practitioners: "You can't just do digital. You can't just do linear. Good buyers today are buying across the spectrum."