EUR/USD Hits 18-Month Low at 1.1046 After Hot US CPI Print

EUR/USD printed a fresh 18-month low at 1.1046 after a hot US CPI reading, and analyst Tregor-invest says 1.1100 has now flipped from support into resistance. The pair's slide shows who controls the tape: the dollar.

Markets are now almost certain the Federal Reserve will hike again in December, and some traders are even discussing a 50 basis-point move, according to the TradingView analysis. The European Central Bank will most likely hike in December too. But the market doubts the ECB will go any further than that, and that policy-gap expectation is what keeps the euro on the back foot.

The Dollar Index (DXY) confirms the shift. It has broken out of its range and is holding near 103, a level that signals broad dollar strength rather than a euro-specific story.

What did the Eurozone GDP revision do?

Nothing. That's the notable part. Eurozone Q3 GDP was revised sharply upward, to +0.6% from +0.4%, and the euro still fell to a new low at 1.1046. Even genuinely strong European data couldn't lift the currency. As Tregor-invest put it, that "shows clearly who is in charge right now: the dollar."

Where does the technical picture stand?

The daily chart (D1) frames the damage. EUR/USD has been in a downtrend since September, when it traded around 1.17. The structure has broken lower, price sits in the discount zone, and the next notable pool of liquidity sits lower, around 1.07 — a level that would imply several more full cents of downside from current prices.

The 4-hour chart (H4) shows how fast the move happened:

• A bearish impulse started on November 10 from 1.1240.
• The drop ran almost 200 pips.
• The pair is now stuck in a tight 1.1045–1.1075 range while the market digests the fall.

What is the main trading scenario?

Tregor-invest's base case is a pullback to 1.1090–1.1100, the breakdown level. That is where the analyst looks for sellers to step in. From there, the path continues down to 1.1000 first, then 1.0950.

The alternative scenario flips on one level. If EUR/USD closes on the H4 timeframe and holds above 1.1140, the bearish impulse is broken, and a move back toward 1.1200 becomes possible.

What comes next on the calendar?

US PPI data lands at 13:30 GMT. The read matters directly for the setup. A strong number, in the analyst's view, "adds one more argument for the dollar." A weak print could be the trigger for that pullback toward 1.1100 — the move the main scenario is built around.

Tregor-invest trades EUR/USD algorithmically and publishes the daily market read covering trend, key levels and news. The analysis carries an explicit disclaimer: it is not investment advice.

The near-term question is simple and binary. Either the pullback into 1.1090–1.1100 finds sellers and opens 1.1000, or an H4 close above 1.1140 kills the impulse and revives 1.1200. With December Fed expectations tightening and the ECB's path priced as shorter, the burden of proof sits on the euro bulls.