EUR/USD Range Near 1.1110-1.1275 Remains Inside a Broader Downtrend

By Olivia Hart

EUR/USD is trading sideways between resistance near 1.1275 and support near 1.1110, CFI said. The 0.0165 span equals 1.65 U.S. cents per euro, while the broader technical picture remains bearish.

CFI's technical analysis placed that consolidation inside a broader downward trend. Price had broken below previous support near 1.1400 before entering the current range, CFI said.

What does the sideways range actually show?

The current rectangle sits below the earlier 1.1400 support level, according to CFI. CFI treats the decline through that level as part of the prevailing bearish phase, rather than evidence that the larger fall has ended.

The analysis identifies boundaries and direction, but not the consolidation's duration. CFI gave no start date, volatility measure or evidence on trading activity, so the range cannot support a precise timing call.

Takeaway: In CFI's framework, the pause does not overturn the downtrend.

Do the moving averages still point lower?

Price remains below both the 35-day and 50-day moving averages, CFI reported. The 35-day average has also crossed below the 50-day average, which CFI called a bearish crossover.

CFI uses that crossover to reinforce its assessment that the prevailing trend remains bearish. Together with the break below 1.1400, the averages support the analyst's view that sellers retain control of the euro.

CFI did not publish the moving-average levels themselves. Readers therefore cannot measure how far price sits below either average or judge how quickly that gap might close.

Takeaway: The averages corroborate the bearish trend, although they do not provide a downside target.

Does the RSI offer a counter-signal?

The Relative Strength Index is below 50, CFI said, placing the momentum indicator in what CFI described as the bearish momentum zone. The reading reinforces the moving-average analysis rather than signaling a recovery in the euro.

The evidence remains incomplete. CFI supplied no exact RSI reading, no date for that reading and no comparison with prior levels. It also did not label the indicator oversold, so the analysis offers no momentum-based floor for EUR/USD.

Takeaway: RSI supports CFI's bearish bias, but the absence of a precise reading limits its standalone value.

Is the rectangle only a pause?

CFI said sideways consolidation phases are generally considered “pauses or periods of rest within the preceding trend.” It classified the current movement as a rectangle pattern and therefore treats it as a possible pause in the euro's decline.

The key condition is a confirmed break below 1.1110 support, CFI said: “The euro could resume its decline if a break below the 1.1110 support level is confirmed.” The statement is conditional, not a forecast that the break has occurred or will occur on a specified timetable.

CFI did not define the confirmation threshold. It also offered no projected target below 1.1110 and no alternative scenario for a sustained move above 1.1275 resistance. The rectangle therefore marks risk boundaries, not a guaranteed path.

Takeaway: A downside break would revive the bearish case, while a move above resistance remains undeveloped in the source.

Can monetary policy break the range?

CFI said monetary-policy expectations continue to weigh on the euro because U.S. interest rates range from 3.75% to 4.00%, compared with the European Central Bank's 2.50% rate. The U.S. floor stands 1.25 percentage points above the ECB rate, while the ceiling stands 1.50 points higher.

That rate gap is the source's main fundamental support for the dollar. CFI also cited a rise in U.S. inflation in October, saying it reinforced expectations of tighter monetary policy, supported the dollar and limited EUR/USD's recovery prospects.

The inflation reference lacks two important details. CFI gave neither the year nor the size of the increase, and it supplied no underlying inflation data. The analysis also did not detail how the European Central Bank's policy path might change.

Takeaway: CFI's fundamental case favors the dollar, but the evidence is directional rather than fully specified.

What would settle the next move?

Two levels organize CFI's current case: 1.1110 support and 1.1275 resistance. A confirmed break below 1.1110 would put the euro back on the source's downward path, while remaining inside the range would preserve the rectangle.

The moving averages and RSI would then require reassessment because both currently lean bearish, according to CFI. The source does not provide a probability, forecast horizon or price target, so the analysis offers a conditional map rather than a timed trading call.

A confirmed break below 1.1110 is the clearest trigger for renewed euro weakness in CFI's framework; without it, EUR/USD remains boxed between 1.1110 and 1.1275.