EURUSD Traders Eye 1.12600 Resistance Ahead of US CPI Print

EURUSD is trading back toward the 1.12600–1.12800 resistance band, and one widely followed chart analyst says that zone will decide the pair's next move when US inflation data lands. The analyst, who publishes on TradingView under the handle IndiShark, laid out the scenario in a note titled "EURUSD 10/11: Ahead of US CPI."

The setup is straightforward. The pair is recovering after an earlier breakdown of its rising trendline. That recovery now runs into the previous highs near 1.12600. IndiShark's preferred scenario is a further push into the resistance zone, followed by a rejection and a move lower.

What is the trade plan?

The analyst published exact levels rather than a vague direction call:

• Sell entry: around 1.12615
• Stop loss: 1.13165
• Take profit: 1.11665

Measured against the entry, the stop sits 55 pips above and the target 95 pips below. That works out to a reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 1.7 to 1 on the planned short.

The trigger matters as much as the entry. IndiShark wants the price to move briefly above the resistance band and then close back below 1.12600 before committing to the short. That pattern would confirm sellers still control the zone. Sustained acceptance above the band, by contrast, would weaken the setup and argue against the trade.

Why does the CPI report decide the trade?

The US consumer price index release is the event risk behind the whole scenario. The calendar forecasts cited in the note point to headline CPI at 3.9% year over year and core CPI at 2.8% year over year. On a monthly basis, the forecasts call for a 0.3% rise in headline inflation and a 0.2% rise in the core measure.

An upside surprise, particularly in core inflation, could reinforce Federal Reserve tightening expectations, IndiShark writes. That would support the dollar and pressure EURUSD lower — the outcome the short setup anticipates. The note ties this directly to Friday's strong US payrolls report, which has already shifted expectations toward tighter Fed policy.

The mechanism is simple. Hotter inflation keeps the Fed raising rates or holding them higher for longer. Higher US rates make dollar assets more attractive. Money flows into the dollar, and EURUSD falls.

What happens if inflation comes in soft?

IndiShark flags the alternative case explicitly. Below-forecast inflation could weaken the dollar and let the EURUSD recovery extend straight through the resistance zone. In that path, the short idea fails and the rejection never arrives. The analyst states the short remains conditional on that rejection at resistance for exactly this reason.

If sellers do regain control after the rejection, the note maps the downside path. The first support test sits at 1.12100–1.12200. A break there opens the way to the full target at 1.11665.

The structure of the analysis therefore rests on two checkpoints. First, the price must reach and fail at 1.12600–1.12800. Second, the CPI print must not deliver a downside surprise strong enough to break the dollar's support.

Is this a live signal?

No. IndiShark includes a clear disclaimer: "The setup above represents a hypothetical analytical scenario, not a live trade signal or investment advice. Always manage your own risk." The note is a scenario map, not an executed position, and readers should treat the levels as analytical reference points.

For market watchers, the practical takeaway is timing. The decision area at 1.12600–1.12800 and the CPI release converge on the same session, so the pair's reaction to the data — through, or back below, that band — should set the direction for the move toward either 1.11665 or higher ground.