Luxury Home Prices Fall Nationwide—Except in Florida, Where Billionaires Keep Buying

U.S. luxury home prices have now fallen year over year for 31 consecutive months—yet five Florida metros are bucking the trend, according to a Realtor.com report published Monday.

The national entry point for luxury housing—the asking price marking the top 10% of listings—dropped to $1,197,014 in October, down 2.3% from a year earlier. The declines get steeper as you climb. The top 5% threshold fell 4.1%, and the top 1% fell 6.2%, landing at roughly $5.1 million.

Florida runs the other direction. In the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metro, the luxury threshold rose 4.1% to about $2.3 million. Naples climbed 9% to about $3.75 million—more than three times the national entry point.

What's driving the split?

Only 12 of the 43 metros Realtor.com analyzed saw luxury prices rise at least 1% over the past year, and five of those were in Florida: Naples-Marco Island, North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.

Naples led the country and became the only one of the nation's 10 most expensive luxury markets where prices climbed. Its priciest listings sold a median 27 days faster than a year ago. Million-dollar inventory is shrinking across most of Florida's gaining markets, and Realtor.com senior economist Anthony Smith wrote that "that smaller pool of available homes may be helping support prices, even as luxury thresholds fall nationally."

The fuel is new wealth. Florida took in a net $137 billion in income from other states between 2019 and 2023—before an additional wave of billionaires arrived ahead of proposed wealth taxes in California and Washington. Jeff Bezos, Ken Griffin, Mark Zuckerberg, Larry Page, and Sergey Brin have collectively spent hundreds of millions on South Florida estates, drawn by no state income tax, the lifestyle, and the business climate.

"Low rates lit the match, tight supply fed it, investors added heat, and wealthy newcomers poured gasoline on it," Arman Javaherian, CEO of homebuying platform Homa and a former Zillow executive, told Fortune.

The billionaire shopping list

The receipts are public. Griffin relocated Citadel from Chicago to Miami in 2022, the same year he paid $106.9 million for a Coconut Grove estate. Raffles is now building 35 homes in that enclave starting at $4.5 million.

"We don't really play in the middle market. We continue to see tremendous amounts of wealth moving into Florida, especially South Florida," Camilo Miguel Jr., founder and CEO of Mast Capital, one of the project's partners, told Fortune.

Bezos sold his $63 million Seattle mansion and has spent $237 million on three Indian Creek properties—the island locals call "Billionaire Bunker." In September, a Delaware LLC reportedly tied to him paid $69.5 million for an oceanfront estate in nearby Golden Beach. Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan closed on a $170 million Indian Creek estate this year. Page spent about $173.4 million on two Coconut Grove properties.

"Someone buying a $20 million or $50 million home in Miami is coming for no state income tax, the lifestyle, and the business climate," South Florida luxury advisor Michael Martirena told Fortune.

Florida's newly approved Amendment 3 adds another tailwind: the yearly cap on taxable-value increases for second homes drops from 10% to 5%. Experts say that change matters most to wealthy owners holding multiple properties.

What does this change for everyone else?

For practitioners, the takeaway is a two-track market. The rest of the country is still working off pandemic-era gains—the pandemic packed years of luxury price growth into roughly 24 months, and as of May the typical luxury market had held onto only 59% of that run-up, according to a June Realtor.com report.

The West Coast shows the strain. San Jose's luxury threshold dropped 12.1% year over year in October; New York-Newark-Jersey City fell 11.3%; San Francisco fell 7.1%. Realtor.com attributes San Francisco's slump primarily to tech layoffs, outbound migration, and a smaller buyer pool.

If the wealth-tax pushes in California and Washington keep sending nine-figure buyers to South Florida, expect Florida's supply squeeze—and its prices—to hold while the national luxury segment keeps cooling.