GBP/USD Sits at 1.3451 Ahead of US CPI With 1.3503 Double Top in Play

GBP/USD traded at 1.3451 on Nov 10 at 07:16 UTC, pinned between a 1.3503 double top above and a 1.3400 floor below, with October's US CPI print at 13:30 UTC set to force the break. That's the whole setup in one line: one release, two scenarios, and levels the market has already mapped.

What's the technical picture?

The daily trend ran down from the Aug 21 high of 1.3675 to the Oct 14 low of 1.3137, according to TradingView analyst AetherEdge. Since then the structure has shifted. The pair printed higher lows at 1.3272 on Oct 28 and 1.3340-1.3342 on Nov 6 and Nov 9, and price has climbed back above the 100-day average near 1.3400.

On the 4-hour chart, the Nov 4-5 highs at 1.3503 and 1.3501 formed a double top. Friday's US jobs data knocked price down to 1.3342. Monday's rally recovered the entire drop, and GBP/USD now sits back in the Nov 2 high zone of 1.3448-1.3454.

Resistance sits at 1.3503, then 1.3545 — the Jul 15 swing high. Support holds at 1.3400, where the 100-day average meets the Nov 3 low area, then 1.3340 from the Nov 6 and Nov 9 lows.

Why does CPI carry extra weight this month?

Consensus for October's US CPI is +0.3% month-over-month headline and +0.2% core, per Kiplinger and FXStreet. There's a quirk: the BLS will not publish year-over-year rates this month because October 2025 prices were never collected. RBC sees risks to the print "skewed heavily to the upside."

Rate expectations have already moved. CME FedWatch puts the probability of a December 9 Fed hike at about 84%, up from roughly 73% before Friday's payrolls report showed 165,000 jobs added. The Fed funds rate currently stands at 3.75-4.00%.

Where do the Bank of England and gilts fit?

The BoE raised rates to 4.00% on Nov 5 by an 8-1 vote; Catherine Mann wanted 50 basis points. Governor Andrew Bailey said in the minutes: "I can see the argument for a further increase." Markets price about three more hikes by the end of 2027, per FXStreet. The next BoE decision lands Dec 17.

The rate gap has narrowed slightly. The UK 10-year gilt yielded 5.14% against 4.86% for the US 10-year on Nov 9, per countryeconomy and Yahoo data — gilts about 28 basis points above Treasuries, down from roughly 36 basis points on Oct 30.

The dollar index sits at 101.62, down from about 102.30 after payrolls, per Yahoo. Brent trades near $91 after a 5.9% drop Monday on US-Iran talk hopes, according to Yahoo and Reuters.

What are the two scenarios?

AetherEdge assigns probabilities to each path:

• Scenario A (55%): The higher-low structure holds into CPI. A soft or in-line print keeps the dollar on the back foot, and a 4H close above 1.3505 opens 1.3545.
• Scenario B (45%): A hot CPI pushes Fed hike odds higher. The 1.3503 double top holds, and a 4H close below 1.3395 drags price back to 1.3340.

The invalidation levels are symmetrical. A 4H close below 1.3395 cancels the bullish view. A 4H close above 1.3510 cancels Scenario B and opens the 1.3545 target.

What's on the calendar next?

The next 48 hours are dense. BoE's Lombardelli speaks Nov 10 at 12:30 UTC, US CPI drops at 13:30 UTC (08:30 ET), the Fed's Logan appears at 14:35 UTC, and BoE's Pill plus the Fed's Schmid follow at 18:30 UTC. Nov 11 is US Veterans Day with the bond market closed. Nov 12 brings UK Q3 GDP (first estimate) and September GDP at 07:00 UTC. UK labour data follows Nov 17 from the ONS.

With CPI at 13:30 UTC and two clean invalidation levels, the market won't have to wait long for its answer.