Iran braces for US strike or sanctions squeeze within two weeks

By Daniel Okafor

Iranian officials say Washington has set a two-week clock. After that, President Donald Trump will decide on military action against Tehran. Mehdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Iran's chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, announced the deadline on his Telegram channel.

Mohammadi is regarded as a reliable indicator of Ghalibaf's thinking. He cast doubt on Trump's claim that the military option was off the table. Washington, he argued, is preparing a limited strike, and Iran is already preparing a response.

What did Iran's negotiator adviser say?

Mohammadi laid out Tehran's logic in blunt terms. If US sanctions continue, he said, a comprehensive pre-emptive war would be needed "to increase the cost of sanctions for the enemy".

He described the US response to Iran's latest proposals on reopening the Strait of Hormuz as "not only unsatisfactory but completely deceptive".

"They do not want to release the frozen funds. They do not want to lift the sanctions and they do not want to stop the war in Lebanon."

He also disclosed one diplomatic rupture. Iran rejected a request from US Vice-President JD Vance for a direct meeting with its negotiators before Washington answered Tehran's conditions for lifting the siege on the strait.

For now, Trump has settled on a different strategy. He aims to suffocate Iran through economic pressure, tighten the blockade on its oil exports, and let other Gulf states ship freely through Hormuz.

Why does Tehran fear the sanctions could work?

Mohammadi's assessments point to a specific fear inside the Iranian leadership: that economic turmoil might spark street protests. One obvious flashpoint is the anniversary of nationwide demonstrations that began in late December last year.

On that basis, senior Iranians may conclude the current "no peace, no war" impasse is unsustainable. Pre-emptive action, in their view, would follow.

How strong is Iran's grip on the strait?

The oil market tells a different story. Brent crude sits at a relatively low $93 a barrel. Saudi production runs near prewar levels of 9.3 million barrels a day. Both numbers undercut Iranian claims that the blockade is working.

Iran moved to close loopholes three days ago. It said it bombed a US radar post on the Omani island of Didamar.

What are the other flashpoints?

Three senior figures widened the threat picture this week.

• Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's national security council, said he told Russia that not "a particle" of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile would leave the country. He said it might be needed for planned nuclear-powered submarines.
• Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, warned Europe that any complicity in the US blockade would be "an act of war that will be etched in the nation's historical memory".
• Tehran has stated plainly that US bases in Europe will be targeted if fighting resumes.

Rezaei put the warning in direct terms: "If American planes take off from a distant military base and come to this country to bomb Iran, we will also target that base. We are announcing this now so they have no excuse tomorrow."

What pressure is Trump under at home?

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested this week that economic strangulation alone was sufficient. He called Iran's demands unrealistic.

Trump faces a harder deadline than Tehran's. The Democrats take charge of Congress on 3 January, and he wants the crisis resolved before then.

A Reuters-Ipsos poll shows 71% of Americans want Congress to pass legislation to end the war in Iran. The midterms delivered the same message: the conflict is highly unpopular. Yet the Democrats have no strategy to end it and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

That gap leaves the political initiative with the White House, and with an increasingly hardline Iranian leadership that is openly weighing a first strike.