Idaho and the Carolinas Are Out-Building America at Double the National Pace

Idaho approved 12,994 housing units in the first eight months of 2026 — 126% above the national permit rate — making it the fastest-permitting state in America per capita. An October research report from the Lied Center for Real Estate at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas puts Idaho, South Carolina and North Carolina at the top of a supply race the rest of the country isn't running.

Nationally, housing permits were "essentially flat" from January to August 2026 compared with the same months a year earlier, according to the report. The US average works out to 2.83 units permitted per 1,000 residents. Idaho, South Carolina and North Carolina each cleared more than double that pace.

For practitioners, the practical question is simple: what does this change for buyers, builders and investors in those markets? The answer runs through supply timing and affordability math.

What does the new supply actually do?

Nicholas Irwin, coauthor of the report and research director at the Lied Center, said buyers in high-permitting states stand to gain because added supply can put downward pressure on prices.

"That means hopefully, as wages continue to grow year over year, and the amount of building you're doing is putting downward pressure on housing prices, housing naturally becomes more affordable," Irwin said.

The report notes that homes permitted now typically come online throughout 2028 and 2029. So the price relief is real but delayed — anyone underwriting a purchase or a development over the next two years should treat these figures as pipeline, not inventory.

Why these states are pulling ahead

Irwin was blunt about the national picture: America is doing a "terrible job" building housing. But he said the leaders share an obvious input.

"South Carolina, Idaho, North Carolina, Kansas, Nebraska — what a lot of these states have in common is they have a lot of land, and that is a key input into building," he said. "Developers, they don't build it in without some indication that demand is rising."

South Carolina ranked first in the report's overall housing supply pipeline rankings across four metrics, including permits per 1,000 residents. The state issued 33,822 permits through August 2026 — 114% above the US rate, up 5% from the same period in 2025 and up 15% from 2023.

The affordability gap supply won't close quickly

Here's the catch for buyers eyeing Boise or Greenville. In Idaho, households would need to earn 47% more income to afford a typical home at the same affordability level as 2018. Eight years ago, a median-priced home cost 28.7% of median income in the state; today it costs 42.1%.

South Carolina's gap is narrower: residents need roughly 35% more income to return to 2018 affordability levels. Idaho also ranks first nationally in units permitted per 1,000 cost-burdened households — a measure capturing households paying 30% or more of income toward housing — which signals builders are at least aiming supply at strained markets.

Tennessee shows the momentum risk

Tennessee rounded out the top 10, permitting 3.88 units per 1,000 residents — still above the national average and ahead of 40 other states. But it ranked just 18th across the report's four measurement pillars, and its permitting is decelerating: down 4.9% per resident from 2025 to 2026, and down 18.5% from 2023 to 2026.

Irwin cautioned against reading any single ranking in isolation. Permit rates must be weighed against population growth, household formation and cost-burden levels state by state.

"There's no one state that is sort of the perfect example, and there's no one state that is perfectly problematic," Irwin said. "It's how much are these states growing, and what's the rate of household formation in these states? How many folks in these states are cost-burdened?"

He framed the national challenge as plural rather than singular: "Every state's different. Every state's needs are different."

For market watchers, the takeaway is that supply growth is concentrating in a handful of land-rich, high-growth states — led by "Your Carolinas and Idaho," as Irwin put it — and that the price effects, when they arrive in 2028 and 2029, will be regional stories, not a national one.