McDonald's Bets on Chicken and Drinks. The Data Says It's a Tough Sell

McDonald's has named chicken and beverages as its two priority growth categories. New consumer spending data suggests winning those categories will be harder than the plan implies.

Figures from Consumer Edge, a firm that tracks consumer transaction and spending behavior, show Chick-fil-A gaining ground in customer spending on chicken. The same data shows coffee chains increasing their share of beverage spending. Both trends point directly at the segments McDonald's has identified as its next engines of growth.

The stakes are straightforward. McDonald's has built its business on beef — the Big Mac remains its signature product — but the growth in fast food has shifted toward chicken and drinks. Chicken chains have expanded faster than burger chains across the U.S. quick-service sector, and beverages have become one of the highest-margin, fastest-growing pieces of the fast-food menu.

Why chicken and drinks?

McDonald's has leaned into both categories in its growth strategy. Chicken now represents a meaningful share of its menu, from McNuggets to chicken sandwiches, and the company has pushed deeper into beverages as a way to drive frequency among customers who might otherwise skip a visit.

The logic is margin and traffic. Drinks carry high margins and can be sold throughout the day. Chicken appeals to customers trading away from beef. Together, the two categories are meant to lift sales at existing restaurants without requiring new store growth.

What does the Consumer Edge data show?

The data complicates that plan. According to Consumer Edge's tracking:

• Chick-fil-A is gaining in customer spending, putting the leader in chicken directly in McDonald's path as it tries to grow its own chicken business.
• Coffee chains are also gaining in customer spending on beverages, meaning McDonald's is fighting established, specialized players for the same drink dollars rather than expanding the category on its own.

Consumer Edge bases its findings on measured consumer spending behavior, which makes the trend a direct read on where customers are actually directing their fast-food budgets — not where companies say they are.

Why is this a tough task?

McDonald's is not entering neutral territory. In chicken, Chick-fil-A's continued spending gains mean McDonald's must take share from an incumbent that keeps winning customers rather than simply riding category growth. In beverages, specialized coffee chains are capturing spending growth, leaving McDonald's to compete as a generalist against operators whose entire business is built around drinks.

That dynamic — chasing growth in categories where the incumbents are themselves still gaining — is what makes the task difficult, according to the Consumer Edge findings. Category growth alone will not carry McDonald's if rivals absorb the incremental spending.

What comes next?

McDonald's has committed to chicken and beverages as growth pillars. The Consumer Edge data indicates the company will need to win customers directly from Chick-fil-A and the coffee chains to make that strategy pay off. Whether McDonald's can convert its scale and traffic into leadership in those two categories — against opponents still gaining spending share — will shape the next phase of its growth story.