Nasdaq 100 Futures Set Up a Short at 28,100 as CPI Jolts Traders

December Nasdaq-100 futures settled at 27,835.25 on Tuesday, down 179.25 points, or 0.64 percent, snapping a two-session streak of higher closes. The intraday story was violent: a 268.25-point drop in the 8:30 AM ET bar coincided with the October consumer price index printing 0.4 percent against a 0.3 percent forecast, released at 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, per the verified forward calendar.

The contract then rose 269.25 points in the 9:30 AM ET bar — the largest gain of any 30-minute bar — before sliding to the session low of 27,516.00 in the 12:30 PM bar. That bar followed a 12:20 PM ET news-feed item on new office software from an artificial-intelligence developer. The entire session traded inside Monday's range, between 28,109.00 and 27,516.00, and settled at 53.8 percent of its 593.00-point range — the narrowest such reading since November 3, 2026. Tuesday's high printed in the 7:00 PM ET bar on Monday evening.

What did the surrounding markets do?

The Nasdaq-100 cash index fell 0.60 percent to 27,740.80. The semiconductor index lost 0.35 percent. The ten-year yield index closed at 4.98 percent after touching 5.02 percent, and the volatility index finished at 19.46.

The composite multi-indicator read from the review sits at 80 percent sell, unchanged from a session earlier. The medium-horizon group reads 100 percent sell, and negative direction leads on both directional systems. The settle sits beneath the 20-day and 50-day settlement averages for a 20th consecutive session and beneath the 200-day for a fourth, while holding above the 5-day.

Where are the key levels?

Dealer-positioning data places the cash close 306.20 points beneath the modeled gamma-flip level at NDX 28,047 and 259.20 points beneath the NDX 28,000 key strike. The nearest reference below is the NDX 27,000 put-side support base.

Resistance stack, top to bottom:

• 28,505.00 — 200-day settlement average
• 28,413.08 — Pivot R2
• 28,372.00 — 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week low
• 28,246.99 — 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low
• 28,141.45 — modeled gamma-flip level, futures conversion
• 28,124.17 — Pivot R1
• 28,109.00 — Tuesday's session high
• 28,094.45 — NDX 28,000 key strike, futures conversion
• 27,998.56 — published target price

Support stack:

• 27,835.25 — Tuesday's settle
• 27,820.08 — Pivot Point
• 27,766.79 — 3-10-16 day MACD projection stall
• 27,531.17 — Pivot S1
• 27,516.00 — Tuesday's session low
• 27,227.08 — Pivot S2
• 27,105.02 — one standard deviation support
• 27,094.45 — primary put-side support base, futures conversion
• 26,938.17 — Pivot S3

What is the trade, and what could break it?

The primary setup is a short in the December contract from the 28,100 to 28,140 band — the zone around Pivot R1 at 28,124.17, Tuesday's 28,109.00 high, and the 28,094.45 and 28,141.45 conversions of the key strike and flip level. The stop sits at 28,260, above the 28,246.99 retracement and beneath the 28,272.25 projection.

Targets run at 27,980 first, beneath the 27,998.56 published target price; 27,840 second, above the settle and the Pivot Point; and 27,700 third, beneath the 27,766.79 projection stall. Risk-to-reward works out to roughly 1:1, 1:2 and 1:3 respectively from the entry midpoint. Context matters: the 14-day average true range is 815.47 points against a 140-point stop distance, meaning a single average day moves nearly six times the stop.

Invalidation triggers are explicit. A settle above Pivot R2 at 28,413.08 negates the thesis, and two consecutive 30-minute closes above 28,140 remove the edge before the stop is hit. The review also flags two event risks: a reversal lower in yields, or a strong reaction to after-close cloud results across AI shares, could carry price through the stop in one move. The higher low of an inside session is the main structural risk to a short.

The bias, in the review's interpretation, is neutral to lower beneath Pivot R1 at 28,124.17, with a rebound toward that level the more likely first test and a stall beneath the flip-level conversion the base case. Futures conversions use Tuesday's measured 94.45-point basis.

Why Wednesday matters

Wednesday is the Veterans Day holiday, with CME Globex running normal hours. Tuesday's settle sits 1,083.25 points above the 26,752.00 settle of November 5, 2026, after an inside session. The review frames the day as a test of whether a rebound stalls beneath the 28,094-to-28,141 band, or whether a further rise in yields carries the contract through Tuesday's 27,516.00 low toward Pivot S2 at 27,227.08. The author's own framing is candid: this is an analyst judgment that rebounds into Pivot R1 get sold.