Nasdaq 100 Futures Set Up a Short at 28,250 After 1.23% Slump

The December Nasdaq-100 contract settled at 28,034.75 on Friday, down 349.75 points or 1.23 percent — and the setup for Monday is a short from the 28,250–28,310 band, per MyAlgoIndex's technical review.

Friday's session packed a 912.50-point range, trading between a high of 28,607.75 and a low of 27,695.25. That made it the second consecutive lower settle and the lowest settlement since November 10, 2026. Friday also printed a lower high and a lower low against Thursday. In plain terms: sellers kept control, and the overnight bid didn't survive the cash session.

What drove the selloff?

The session high printed in the 6:30 PM ET bar Thursday evening. Then the producer price index landed at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, per the review's verified forward calendar. The monthly reading came in at 0.3 percent against a 0.4 percent forecast — cooler than expected. The market didn't celebrate. The 9:30 AM ET bar fell 303.50 points and the 10:00 AM ET bar another 246.25. The session low of 27,695.25 printed in the 11:00 AM ET bar, and the contract recovered into the 4:00 PM ET settle.

The damage was broad but concentrated in chips. The semiconductor index fell 3.43 percent, while the Nasdaq-100 cash index dropped 1.22 percent to 27,943.74. The ten-year yield index closed at 5.15 and the volatility index at 19.30. The provider's market commentary tied the decline to another selloff in chipmakers and to hawkish Fed remarks — the review flags this as attributed commentary, not its own view.

One more wrinkle: after the settle, the news feed carried reports from 4:10 PM ET of an airport ground stop, described as nationwide from 4:16 PM ET. The 4:30 PM ET bar traded down to 27,766.50 before closing at 27,927.25. The review notes the reports and the decline coincided — it stops short of claiming causation, and so should you.

Where are the key levels?

The cash index closed beneath two modeled dealer-positioning levels: the gamma-flip level at 28,217 and the volatility threshold at 28,300. The largest gamma concentration sits at 28,000, with the primary put-side support base at 27,000. That geometry matters — once price trades below its gamma flip, dealers tend to sell moves against the trend rather than dampen them.

The composite multi-indicator read moved to 64 percent sell with direction strengthening, up from 40 percent sell a session earlier. The settle sits above the 9-day settlement average but beneath the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day averages. The review's bias is lower beneath 28,308.00 — its futures conversion of the modeled gamma-flip level — with a rebound toward that level the more likely first test and a retest of Friday's 27,695.25 low the base case.

Resistance stack from above:

• 28,607.75 — Friday's session high
• 28,529.92 — Pivot R1
• 28,529.75 — 200-day settlement average
• 28,415.66 — two standard deviation resistance
• 28,391.00 — modeled volatility threshold (futures conversion)
• 28,308.00 — modeled gamma-flip level (futures conversion)
• 28,304.09 — one standard deviation resistance
• 28,148.50 — 5-day settlement average
• 28,112.58 — Pivot Point

Support below the settle:

• 28,034.75 — Friday's settle
• 27,939.00 — 9-day settlement average
• 27,927.25 — close of the 4:30 PM ET bar, after settlement
• 27,766.50 — low of the 4:30 PM ET bar
• 27,695.25 — Friday's session low
• 27,617.42 — Pivot S1
• 27,516.00 — Tuesday's session low
• 27,200.08 — Pivot S2

The trade and its risks

The primary setup: short the December contract from 28,250 to 28,310, around the one standard deviation resistance at 28,304.09 and the 28,308.00 gamma-flip conversion. Stop at 28,440, placed above two standard deviation resistance at 28,415.66 and the 28,391.00 volatility threshold conversion. Targets run to 28,120 first (above the 28,112.58 Pivot Point), 27,960 second (above the 27,939.00 9-day average) and 27,800 third (above the 27,766.50 post-settle bar low).

Risk to reward from the entry midpoint is roughly 1:1 to the first objective, 1:2 to the second and 1:3 to the third. Context check: the 14-day average true range is 813.52 points against a 160-point stop distance — the stop sits inside one-fifth of a normal day's range, so this is a tight trade by design.

Invalidation rules are explicit. A settle above 28,415.66 negates the thesis. Two consecutive 30-minute closes above 28,310 remove the edge before the stop is reached. And the review flags the failure mode plainly: a recovery in chipmakers ahead of the Nvidia results, or a decline in yields, can carry price through the stop in one move. This is an analyst judgment that rebounds into the modeled levels get sold, not a mechanical signal.

What does this change for traders?

Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET Sunday, and the Nvidia results conference call is scheduled for 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, per the verified forward calendar. Monday, in the review's framing, is a test of whether a rebound stalls beneath the 28,300–28,400 band — or whether a further rise in yields carries the contract through Friday's 27,695.25 low toward Pivot S1 at 27,617.42. All levels cited are December-contract levels. Between now and Tuesday's call, the chip trade defines the tape.