Nasdaq 100 Eyes Slingshot Rally as Rebound Tests Key Level

By Amara Osei

The Nasdaq 100's rebound from 26,258 has put the index within striking distance of its 200-day moving average at roughly 28,088, and FOREXcom's analysts see a potential "slingshot" setup building. The bounce started at a technical level that capped prices for lengthy stretches in late 2025 and earlier this year. That same level held as support during last week's violent sell-off.

"There's a slingshot feel developing in our Nasdaq 100 contract, particularly given where the latest rebound began," FOREXcom wrote in a note on the US Tech 100 CFD (FOREXCOM:NAS100).

Why does the 200-day moving average matter now?

The average, sitting near 28,088, is the immediate overhead hurdle. Before last week's breakdown, the index tested and held that moving average on multiple occasions. That history, according to FOREXcom, may explain why the price is hesitating as it approaches the line from below.

Two catalysts are feeding the optimism. Anthropic is progressing toward a stock market listing, and CoreWeave just delivered stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue. Together, they've revived enthusiasm for the AI trade, in the analysts' view, with bullishness "starting to percolate again."

What do the momentum indicators show?

For now, FOREXcom frames this as a countertrend rally. The underlying downtrend hasn't broken. But the momentum picture is improving:

• RSI (14) has been setting higher highs.
• MACD is converging toward its signal line, though still in negative territory.

Combined, the indicators suggest directional risks are becoming more balanced after the recent aggressive selling.

What's the trade if the breakout sticks?

A sustained break above the 200-day moving average — ideally followed by a backtest and a bounce — would create what FOREXcom calls an appealing entry point for longs. The setup lets traders place a tight stop just beneath the moving average for protection.

The initial upside target sits at 28,875. That level served as support on multiple occasions before the breakdown in late October. Above it, two further hurdles come into focus: the downtrend line running from the record highs, and the confluence of the 50-day and 100-day moving averages.

What would kill the bullish case?

The thesis has a hard invalidation point. If the price fails to break and hold above the 200-day moving average, FOREXcom says the immediate bullish bias would be invalidated.

The setup is straightforward for traders watching the US Tech 100: a confirmed push through 28,088 opens the path toward 28,875, while another rejection there would leave the index back inside its post-record-high downtrend.