Nasdaq's Bounce Is Walking Into a Wall at 28,800, Chart Shows

The Nasdaq 100 bounced roughly 1,960 points off its 26,270 low, and it is now heading straight into a resistance zone between 28,800 and 29,050 that could decide the index's next move. That is the core call from TradingView analyst Dillon_dunn, who published the technical breakdown on the NAS100 index (OANDA:NAS100USD) this week.

The numbers behind the setup are precise. The index peaked near 31,400 at the start of October and drifted lower for weeks. Then, last week, a single daily candle sliced through the 28,800 area that had held throughout September and October. Price did not stop falling until it hit 26,270. Since then, the index has recovered to around 28,230.

Why the bounce may stall here

Plenty of traders will look at that recovery and call the bottom in. Dillon_dunn sees it differently: "I see a relief rally walking into a wall."

Two independent technical factors stack at almost exactly the same level, and that convergence is what makes the zone significant. First, the 28,800 to 29,050 band served as support for two full months, and broken support frequently flips into resistance when price returns to it. Second, the halfway point of the entire decline — measured from the 31,400 peak down to the 26,270 trough — lands at roughly 28,840, sitting right inside that same band.

"When two reasons stack on one level, I pay attention," the analyst wrote.

In plain terms: the market's natural retrace of the crash and its broken floor both point to the same ceiling overhead.

The trading plan, level by level

Dillon_dunn laid out a concrete plan with defined entries, invalidation and targets:

• Setup: Watch for price to push into the 28,800 to 29,050 zone and get rejected there — ideally with a clear bearish daily candle or a lower high on the 4-hour chart.
• Invalidation: A daily close above 29,300 kills the bearish thesis.
• Targets: 27,450 first, then a retest of the 26,270 low.

The 29,300 line matters because it sits above the entire resistance band. A close beyond it would mean buyers have reclaimed the old support entirely, and the playbook flips.

What would change the analyst's mind

The analyst is explicit about the conditions for abandoning the short thesis. "If buyers close the day above 29,300, the old support has been taken back and last week starts to look like a shakeout rather than a breakdown. At that point I would rather look for longs than fight it."

That framing matters for positioning. The same event — a daily close above 29,300 — that invalidates the bearish case becomes the trigger for a bullish one. It reframes last week's plunge from a structural breakdown into a liquidity grab that flushed sellers before a move higher.

Dillon_dunn closed with a standard disclaimer: the analysis is the author's own work, not financial advice, and indices can gap on news, so risk management is essential.

The takeaway in one line: the Nasdaq's bounce has real distance left to travel before it hits the wall, but the 28,800-to-29,050 zone — where two months of broken support meet the 50% retracement of the entire drop — is where the next directional decision gets made.