Oil Hits $104.46 a Barrel, Up 55% in a Year

Brent crude traded at $104.46 per barrel as of 11 a.m. Eastern Time on September 28, 2026 — up $1.71 from the prior business day and roughly $37.13 higher than a year ago.

The moves are steep across every timeframe. Oil closed the previous business day at $102.75, a gain of 1.66%. One month ago, Brent stood at $90.64, meaning the price has risen 15.25% in a month. A year ago it was $67.33, which puts the annual increase at 55.15%.

Nobody can reliably predict where oil goes next. Price movements ultimately come down to supply and demand, and when threats of economic downturn or war run high, the trajectory can turn rapidly — as the past year's 55% climb demonstrates.

What $104 oil means at the pump

When consumers pay for gas, they are paying for more than crude. The bill includes refineries, wholesalers, taxes and local station markups. Even so, crude typically accounts for more than half of the price per gallon, making it the dominant driver of what drivers pay.

There is an asymmetry worth noting. When oil prices spike, gas prices follow quickly. When oil drops, pump prices drift down far more slowly — a pattern economists call "rockets and feathers."

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve

The United States holds a stockpile of crude known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Its primary purpose is energy security in case of disaster — sanctions, severe storm damage, even war. It can also soften crippling price hikes during supply shocks.

It is not a long-term answer. The reserve functions as immediate relief for consumers and keeps critical parts of the economy running, including key industries, emergency services and public transportation.

The natural gas spillover

Oil and natural gas are both major energy fuels, and a big move in oil prices can affect gas by extension. If oil prices increase, some industries may swap natural gas into segments of their operations where possible, which pushes up demand for natural gas — and, with it, prices.

Why Brent is the benchmark

Analysts track two major benchmarks: Brent crude, the main global oil benchmark, and West Texas Intermediate, the main benchmark of North America. Brent better represents global performance because it prices much of the world's traded crude. The U.S. Energy Information Administration now uses Brent as its primary reference in its Annual Energy Outlook.

The historical record explains why. In the early 1970s, the Middle East cut exports and imposed an embargo on the U.S. and others during the Yom Kippur War, delivering the first big oil shock. Prices dropped in the mid-1980s on lower demand and more non-OPEC producers entering the industry. Prices spiked in 2008 on rising global demand, then plummeted alongside the global financial crisis. During the 2020 COVID lockdown, demand collapsed like never before, dragging prices below $20 per barrel.

What sets the daily price

The price of oil updates constantly while the futures markets are open. A futures market is effectively an auction where participants agree to buy or sell oil in the future; as long as contracts trade, the price moves.

Politics shapes supply expectations too. In 2025, the Trump administration moved to reopen more than 1.5 million acres in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil and gas leasing, reversing the Biden administration's limits on Arctic drilling. U.S. shale production plays a role as well: the more shale the country taps, the greater the supply cushion against price spikes.

Expensive oil also feeds into inflation and the broader economy. It raises the cost of heating and gas utilities, and it makes shipping more expensive — costs that show up on grocery shelves as it becomes costlier to move products from warehouses and farms to stores.

With Brent above $100 and the war-related seizure of $600 million worth of Iranian oil still in legal play, supply-side headlines — not just demand — will likely keep setting the tone for prices in the weeks ahead.