Oil Hits $115 a Barrel, Up 75% in a Year: What Moves Next

Oil traded at $115.13 per barrel as of 8 a.m. Eastern Time on October 27, 2026, per the Brent benchmark. That's 28 cents below yesterday morning's level — and roughly $49 higher than where a barrel stood a year ago.

The 12-month climb is the headline number. A barrel of Brent cost $65.75 in late October 2025; today it costs 75.10% more. The move has accelerated recently, too: one month ago Brent sat at $101.86, meaning oil has gained 13.02% in just the past month.

Yesterday's close was $115.41, down 0.24% on the day. So the tape is cooling slightly — but the yearly trend is steeply one-directional.

What does the price actually depend on?

No one can say for sure where oil prices go next. Many forces shape the market, but at the core it's still supply and demand. When risks like a potential recession or war ramp up, oil prices can change direction quickly.

Day to day, the price updates constantly while the futures markets are open. A futures market is effectively an auction where people agree to buy or sell oil in the future — as long as contracts are trading, the price is moving.

In the U.S., prices also react to how friendly an administration is to drilling, because that shapes future supply. In 2025, the Trump administration moved to reopen more than 1.5 million acres in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil and gas leasing, reversing the Biden administration's limits on Arctic drilling.

U.S. shale production matters on the same logic. Shale is rock containing oil and natural gas — think of it as energy yet to be tapped. The more shale the U.S. accesses, the greater the supply, and the more easily prices can avoid spiking.

How does $115 oil reach the gas pump?

When you buy gas, you're paying for more than crude. Every step in the chain costs money:

• Refineries
• Wholesalers
• Taxes
• Your local station's markup

Even so, crude has the biggest influence, often making up more than half the cost per gallon. When oil jumps, gas prices usually climb right along with it. When oil falls, gas prices slip far more slowly — the pattern economists call "rockets and feathers." For context on where pump prices stand now, Fortune's own coverage this week reports U.S. gas at $4.29 a gallon amid the Iran conflict.

What is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for?

The U.S. keeps a backup crude supply called the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It exists to protect energy security during crises — sanctions, catastrophic storm damage, even war — and to cushion the blow when supply shocks send prices soaring.

It's not designed to fix long-term problems. Instead, it delivers quick relief for consumers and keeps vital parts of the economy moving: essential industries, emergency services, public transit.

How does oil drag natural gas along?

Oil and natural gas are two of the world's primary energy sources, and a big move in one can affect the other. If oil prices increase, some industries may swap natural gas into segments of their operations where possible — which then increases demand for natural gas, and its price.

That dynamic is playing out in real deals. EQT, the nation's leading natural gas producer, just closed a $13 billion transaction as data center and export demand surges, Fortune reported October 26.

Why Brent is the number to watch

Two benchmarks dominate oil pricing:

• Brent crude — the main global oil benchmark
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) — the main benchmark for North America

Brent gives the better picture of global performance because it prices a large share of the world's traded crude. Even the U.S. Energy Information Administration now uses Brent as its primary reference in its Annual Energy Outlook.

What does history say about a $115 barrel?

Over decades, Brent has been anything but stable. The record shows sharp rises tied to wars and supply cuts, and steep drops tied to recessions and oversupply:

• Early 1970s: the first major oil shock, when the Middle East slashed exports and embargoed the U.S. and others during the Yom Kippur War
• Mid-1980s: prices fell on lower demand and an influx of non-OPEC producers
• 2008: prices surged on growing global demand, then crashed with the financial crisis
• 2020: COVID lockdowns collapsed demand like never before, pushing prices below $20 per barrel

The drivers have stayed constant: wars, recessions, OPEC whims, shifting energy policies. Supply pressure is live elsewhere too — Singapore this week urged suppliers to "honor commitments" as Indonesia slashed gas exports.

What does $115 oil mean for the broader economy?

When oil is expensive, everyday items cost more. That hits energy bills directly — heating, gas utilities — but it also hits logistics. Shipping costs feed into grocery prices, because it's more expensive to move products from warehouses and farms onto shelves.

For practitioners, the practical question is whether the 13% one-month move extends. The market's own history says direction can flip fast when recession or war risk changes — and at $115, there's a lot of inflation pressure already priced into the pump.