S&P 500 Futures Settle at 7,615.25 Ahead of Friday Test

The December S&P 500 contract settled at 7,615.25 on Thursday, down 25.25 points or 0.33 percent. The session printed a higher high at 7,674.75 — the highest since November 5 — and a higher low at 7,572.00 against Wednesday, according to TradingView analyst MyAlgoIndex.

The 102.75-point range was the narrowest since November 3. The settle finished at 42.1 percent of that range, meaning the close landed beneath the middle after the afternoon handed back the morning's gain.

What moved the market?

The 8:00 AM ET bar made the session low, falling 22.75 points. That drop coincided with the US President's 8:07 AM ET remark that the United States does not need a deal with Iran. From the 9:30 AM ET cash open, the contract rose 79.00 points to the high in the 11:00 AM ET bar, then gave back 67.50 points to a 7,607.25 low in the 3:30 PM ET bar.

The provider's market commentary attributed the cash decline to a slump of roughly 4 percent in Nvidia shares after its chief executive resigned, plus higher crude and Treasury yields — attributed commentary, not the analyst's own read.

The scoreboard:

• Cash index: 7,592.40, down 0.35 percent
• Ten-year yield index: closed at 5.10
• Crude: up 2.55 percent
• Volatility index daily record: 18.70, up 1.21

After the close, Cisco and Applied Materials reported results above the estimates the news feed carried.

Where does the settle sit technically?

The composite multi-indicator read is 40 percent sell with minimum strength, unchanged from a session earlier. The settle sits beneath the 20-day, 50-day and 100-day settlement averages, and above the 5-day, 9-day and 200-day.

The dealer-positioning dataset adds a critical layer. The cash close sits 7.60 points beneath the modeled volatility threshold at SPX 7,600 and 17.40 points above the modeled gamma-flip level at SPX 7,575. In MyAlgoIndex's interpretation, that places the index at a decision area where hedging may add to moves beneath the threshold.

"The bias is neutral to lower beneath the 20-day average, with a rebound toward 7,650 the more likely first test and a stall beneath Thursday's high the base case," the review states.

What are the key levels?

Resistance, in futures terms:

• 7,722.75 — SPX 7,700 key strike
• 7,699.50 — 100-day settlement average
• 7,674.75 — Thursday's session high
• 7,669.33 — Pivot R1
• 7,651.75 — 20-day settlement average
• 7,637.63 — 18-day average crossing level
• 7,622.75 — modeled volatility threshold (SPX 7,600)
• 7,620.67 — Pivot Point

Support:

• 7,615.25 — Thursday's settle
• 7,612.75 — directional line (SPX 7,590)
• 7,607.25 — low of the 3:30 PM ET bar
• 7,597.75 — modeled gamma-flip level (SPX 7,575)
• 7,572.00 — Thursday's session low
• 7,566.58 — Pivot S1
• 7,522.75 — primary put-side support base (SPX 7,500)
• 7,517.92 — Pivot S2

What is the setup?

The primary setup is a short of the December contract from the 7,650 to 7,660 band, around the 20-day average at 7,651.75 and beneath Thursday's 7,674.75 high. The stop sits at 7,680, above Thursday's high and beneath the 7,682.39 retracement from the 13-week high.

Targets: 7,630 first, above the SPX 7,600 threshold conversion; 7,605 second, beneath the 3:30 PM bar low; 7,580 third, above Thursday's 7,572.00 low. Risk to reward is roughly 1:1 to the first objective, 1:2 to the second and 1:3 to the third from the entry midpoint.

One sizing note stands out: the 14-day average true range is 128.25 points against a 25-point stop distance. A settle above Thursday's 7,674.75 high negates the thesis, and two consecutive 30-minute closes above 7,660 remove the edge before the stop is hit.

What could break the trade?

Two named risks. A soft producer price report that pulls yields lower, or a positive turn in the Nvidia leadership story, can carry price through the stop in one move. That makes this an explicit analyst judgment that rebounds toward the 20-day average get sold.

The producer price index lands at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 13, per the verified forward calendar. In MyAlgoIndex's reading, Friday tests whether a rebound stalls beneath the 7,650 to 7,675 band into that release — or whether a cash move beneath the SPX 7,575 gamma-flip level carries the contract toward Thursday's 7,572.00 low.