SpaceX’s lockup schedule blunts its feared index impact

By Daniel Okafor

Passive exchange-traded funds owned about $32 billion of SpaceX shares at the end of October, Goldman Sachs said. SpaceX shares were trading at about $142, compared with a $135 IPO price and a $225.64 early peak. Goldman Sachs described the stock as turbulent but its effect on equity indexes as modest as more shares became available to trade.

What did investors fear before the June IPO?

Goldman Sachs research described the pre-IPO fears held by some market experts: Elon Musk’s then-unprofitable company and its volatile stock could have a dramatic effect on the Nasdaq-100. The concern extended to SpaceX’s potential influence on widely tracked U.S. equity indexes.

In a note to clients on Friday, Goldman Sachs analyst Ben Snider said, “Outside of the very short-term trading pattern around the IPO, SpaceX has had a much smaller impact on equity indices than many investors expected.”

The assessment runs counter to the pre-IPO expectation that SpaceX could sharply move broad benchmarks.

How does the lockup schedule reduce volatility?

Snider said SpaceX used a complicated lockup schedule to limit volatility. Most insider-held shares follow a rolling release process. Portions unlock at set dates, spreading potential supply over time instead of creating one large trading event.

Under the schedule Snider described, by mid-December all stock held by individuals other than CEO Elon Musk and select other SpaceX insiders will be free to trade. The final batch of insider shares will unlock after SpaceX reports second-quarter 2027 earnings.

Goldman said nearly a third of SpaceX shares are now available, up from 5% in June. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said in a client note last month that lockup expiration dates have “largely proved to be a non-event” for SpaceX investors.

How much passive money is exposed?

Of the $32 billion in passive ETF holdings, $20 billion was tied to funds benchmarked to the Nasdaq-100, Goldman said. Planned rebalancing will likely raise SpaceX’s weight in both the Nasdaq-100 and the Russell 1000 Growth Index for passive investors, the Goldman team said.

The rebalancing forecast points to more SpaceX exposure in portfolios that track either benchmark.

Has SpaceX moved the Nasdaq-100?

So far, SpaceX has not had a major effect on the Nasdaq-100, Goldman Sachs found. Snider estimates the index’s price-to-earnings ratio at 19.5 times with SpaceX included. Without SpaceX, the ratio falls to 19.2 times.

That limited change in the valuation measure matches Goldman’s finding that the IPO has produced less index disruption than investors feared.

Why has the index impact stayed muted?

Snider compared SpaceX with Tesla, which he described as its sister company. Tesla’s entry into the S&P 500 in 2020 had a muted index impact, even though it was then the largest company joining the benchmark, Snider said.

Snider’s Tesla analogy suggests that a company’s size alone does not guarantee a major index disturbance.

Can SpaceX enter the S&P 500?

SpaceX cannot currently enter the S&P 500 because S&P Dow Jones Indices decided earlier this year not to relax its rules on profitability and the time a company must remain public. Those thresholds block SpaceX’s present eligibility.

Snider thinks SpaceX could join toward the end of next year. He expects the addition would broaden passive investors’ exposure to the company. By the time SpaceX reports second-quarter 2027 earnings, Goldman estimates, SpaceX will be able to meet the S&P 500’s profitability and public-market tenure guidelines.

What could change the muted effect?

Two forces could expand SpaceX’s trading float and passive ownership: the final insider lockup expiration after second-quarter 2027 earnings and planned rebalancing in two major benchmarks. Goldman estimates SpaceX will meet S&P 500 guidelines by the second-quarter 2027 earnings report, while Snider sees possible inclusion toward the end of next year. Those steps could lift passive exposure and SpaceX’s index weight. The next test is whether the staggered release calendar can contain volatility as the available float expands and benchmark weights rise.