Why Trump's GOP Lost the 2026 Midterms: The AP Poll in Numbers

About two-thirds of voters said Donald Trump's policies made the economy worse — and roughly 8 in 10 of them voted for the Democratic candidate in their U.S. House race. That single statistic, from The AP Voter Poll of midterm voters in all 50 states, explains the Republican collapse in Tuesday's 2026 House and Senate elections better than any exit-table spin.

The poll, conducted by SSRS for The Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, FOX News Media, NBC News and Versant, surveyed registered voters from Oct. 22 to Nov. 3 in all states except Alaska, where interviews ran from Oct. 19 to Nov. 3. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 0.6 percentage points for the full sample.

After more than a decade with Trump at the center of U.S. politics, most voters appear exhausted and exasperated by him, the survey found. His failure to deliver on key promises — above all his vow to tame inflation, which worsened instead — weighed on his fellow Republicans. Voters generally saw Trump as more focused on his own fortune and gold-leafed existence than on their needs.

Trump himself conceded as much, sort of. In a Tuesday evening interview with Fox News Channel, he suggested Democrats "fought hard" and that the Republican base "didn't like the candidates" he had endorsed, because some of his picks were not fully loyal to him.

What did inflation do to the GOP ticket?

It crushed it. Voters saw the damage on grocery receipts and at gasoline pumps, in auto-repair bills and in utility charges after a sweltering summer. Even in Republican strongholds like Texas, the drag helped Democrats.

• About 2 in 10 Texas voters said inflation imposed "severe" hardship on their family; roughly three-quarters of them backed Democrat James Talarico for Senate.
• Another 6 in 10 or so reported "moderate" hardship — and Talarico won a majority of those voters too.
• Nationally, voters "very concerned" about everyday costs — groceries, healthcare, gas — overwhelmingly said they voted Democratic in their local House race.

Voters didn't just blame the price levels. They pinned them on Trump — on his tariffs, his war in Iran and his unfulfilled 2024 campaign promise to bring prices down. In short: the economy wasn't an abstraction, it was a receipt with the president's fingerprints on it.

How much did corruption concern voters?

More than the cost of living. Slightly more than half of voters nationally called government corruption "crucial" to their congressional vote — a striking result in a year when about 6 in 10 said they were personally "very concerned" about food and grocery costs.

Republicans suggested voters wouldn't care that Trump made more than $1 billion last year from meme coins and cryptocurrency. The poll says otherwise: most voters saw Trump as obsessed with his own interests. During his second term, he solicited donations from powerful companies to build a White House ballroom after rapidly demolishing the building's East Wing. That tone at the top, the AP reported, spilled into business deals for his family and deals by associates involving pardons and federal policies.

The bottom line number: about two-thirds of voters said Trump does not have the right priorities, and the overwhelming majority of that group backed Democratic House candidates.

Do voters want Congress to push back?

Yes — decisively. About 7 in 10 voters said Congress is not doing enough to provide checks and balances on the presidency. That includes about 4 in 10 Republicans.

For two years, the Republican-controlled House and Senate barely objected as Trump laid off federal workers, imposed sweeping tariffs, launched the war with Iran, remodeled Washington in gold paint, threatened the Federal Reserve, the Kennedy Center and the Smithsonian Institution, and bullied a string of longtime allies. Voters set a clear bar for the Democrats who won back both chambers.

Why didn't swing voters actually embrace Democrats?

Because many didn't. The poll carries a serious caution for the winning party. On the economy, foreign policy, healthcare, taxes and immigration, roughly 2 in 10 voters said "neither" party was better equipped to handle the issue. An even larger share said neither party would be better at tackling government corruption or artificial intelligence.

Those skeptics generally broke for Democrats anyway — but not out of affection. Only about half of voters held a "somewhat" or "strongly" favorable view of the Democratic Party, versus roughly 4 in 10 for the GOP. About 2 in 10 voters who supported Democratic candidates viewed the party negatively overall. In Maine, voters who prized "the right experience" chose Republican incumbent Susan Collins for Senate; more voters wanted "needed change," and they favored Democrat Troy Jackson. That's a transaction, not an endorsement — and Democrats now have to deliver on the oversight voters demanded.

Did Trump's endorsements backfire?

Repeatedly. Trump prized loyalty over electability, and it cost the GOP in state after state.

• South Carolina: after Sen. Lindsey Graham died in July, Trump installed the late senator's sister, Darline Graham. She sought election and stumbled on foreign policy questions that had been her brother's forte. About 6 in 10 voters in the race said she lacked the experience to serve.
• Texas: Trump backed Attorney General Ken Paxton over sitting Sen. John Cornyn in the primary. Paxton had been impeached but not convicted, and about two-thirds of Texas Senate voters said he lacked the character to be a senator.
• North Carolina: about 6 in 10 voters said Republican nominee Michael Whatley was "too supportive" of Trump. They elected former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, instead.

The takeaway

Democrats won both chambers on inflation anger, corruption worries and a demand for congressional oversight — while carrying a favorability rating only marginally better than the party they beat. The 2026 map was a referendum on Trump; 2028 will test whether the Democratic Party can keep voters it never fully won over.