$12 Billion Midterms: Voters Weigh Trust in Capitalism, Politics and Tech

Americans vote tomorrow in midterms projected to cost a record $12 billion, and the bill alone tells part of the story. OpenSecrets projects that total, with Elon Musk alone accounting for nearly half a billion dollars of it, according to Fortune's CEO Daily briefing. The outcome will decide control of Congress, but Fortune frames the deeper stakes as a stress test of public trust in three institutions: capitalism, politics, and business leadership.

What happens to Trump's agenda?

If Democrats take back the House, the Senate, or both, President Donald Trump will face a harder path to the policies, personnel, and funding his agenda requires, Fortune reports — and the right could push back hard. If Republicans retain control, outrage on the left is likely, some of it aimed squarely at that $12 billion spending figure. Twelve billion dollars works out to roughly $36 per U.S. household spent on campaign persuasion in a single cycle. Either result, Fortune argues, leaves trust damaged somewhere.

Is capitalism losing its audience?

Fortune's argument is blunt: Americans tolerate inequality when they believe they have a shot at the prize, and that belief is fading in what the newsletter calls a winner-take-all economy. A Federal Reserve distribution chart shows a rapidly rising share of U.S. household wealth flowing to rich white Boomers since 1989. Gen Z, Fortune reports, increasingly reads the system as rigged — pointing to record oil company profits at Exxon and Chevron amid rising energy prices, plus housing, health care, and education that remain out of financial reach.

The anxiety is not confined to the United States. Hundreds of thousands of anti-government protesters marched across Europe over the weekend, and the newsletter's author reports hearing frequent concern about more unrest on American soil. The unspoken variable is AI: Fortune says younger workers worry it will take their jobs, a fear that colors how they view both employers and politicians.

What do CEOs say privately?

Here the gap between public and private positions widens. The author has interviewed several hundred CEOs over the past year, on and off the record. Publicly, many applaud the Republican agenda on taxes, deregulation, and putting American business first. Privately, far more say they are rattled by several specific developments:

• A $40 trillion national debt, with interest spending projected by the Congressional Budget Office
• The U.S. government taking ownership stakes in large companies, following roughly $27 billion in corporate stakes Fortune previously traced
• The vilification of allies and of immigrant talent
• A perceived need to show personal loyalty to the president

The author writes that he has yet to meet a CEO who is not shocked by the alleged level of personal enrichment by the president and his family. One CEO put it plainly at a recent dinner: "Everything good gets forgotten when there's grift."

The polling backs the concern. An AP-NORC survey found 6 in 10 U.S. adults believe Trump is profiting off the presidency in unethical or illegal ways. That number, not the tax agenda, may define the second half of the president's term.

Do Americans trust tech leaders?

Not by the numbers. An exclusive Shearwater Strategies survey shared with Fortune polled a demographically representative sample of 1,563 Americans on tech leadership and public trust. When asked what tech leaders actually prioritize, 58% chose "making money for themselves and shareholders." "Creating exciting new products" ranked a distant second at 34%.

Asked what leaders should prioritize, the answer flipped: 58% said "protecting user safety and privacy," while only 12% cited making money. Fortune's conclusion carries political weight — if people do not trust tech leaders to care about safety and privacy, they will vote for politicians who promise to protect those interests instead. Regulation, in other words, is the default destination of distrust.

The Edelman Trust Barometer adds one wrinkle: people trust their own employer more than any other institution, even as they distrust business leaders in general, especially on tech and AI. The takeaway is plain: loyalty is local, skepticism is systemic, and tomorrow's vote will measure both.